Adam Posen on a Surreal Jackson Hole in a Post-American World
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Oddlots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.
And I'm Tracy Alloway.
Tracy, we're still here at Jackson Hall. It's funny saying things like we're still here because we're recording all these episodes at the same time and we don't really know exactly when you're listening, but this is yet another Jackson Hall episode.
Another special missive from Jackson Hall.
So I think there's like an element, if uh if I'm being honest, uh a certain surreality of Jackson Hold this year, because it is an academic conference historically. And you know, they're setting aside the chairman's speech, which we'll uh talk about more, setting aside that speech, you know, is a place for like talking about important issues and yeah, academic economics, and that's great, and I love that stuff, and it's super interesting and all that. And yet the big story is really the attack on the whole premise on the s independent central banks. And yet it's sort of like it feels like everything abut that gets talked about.
I think that's right. And you said setting aside Powell's speech, but it was very, very noticeable that in his speech he could have taken it as an opportunity to talk about things like central bank independence or things like data integrity, given what's been happening at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but he chose not to.
Yeah, great point. You're right. Like he could have I because we were wondering, like, you know, this is gonna be his last speech, last time speaking as the Federal Reserve chairman. So he could have said something really big about reflecting on a career of being a central banker and the importance of all these things. And he he gave a uh, you know, macroeconomic policy speech.
There's also this other layer, which is a lot of what he's trying to do now, which seems to be to focus on labor market deterioration and maybe look through some of the upside risks to inflation right now. That only happens if you have a credible central bank that can pin longer term expectations for inflation down. Like
Yes.
The only reason he's able to do some of this is because of the credibility, the social capital that the Fed has built up over decades.
Exactly right. And the reason why we're talking about this, just to be very clear, it's because of the attacks from the Trump administration on Jerome Powell, also other uh Fed governors, also, you know, the whole thing. And this is just part and parcel of one attempt to sort of, you know, restructure how the US does both domestic and international policy, because there's the tariffs, obviously, and those intersect with monetary policy. But then There's just also this sort of changing relationship with other countries that gets into things like, you know, like let's get like payment for security or something like that. Or something like that. Like big, like so many like big hinges and pivots at one point.
It's I mean, I don't think it's hyperbole to say it's a attempt at a restructuring of the global order, both in terms of the economy via The international financial system and also in terms of security. I think the confusing part for me is I th it is a fact that America has the world's biggest economy. America came through the pandemic a lot better than a a lot of other countries. We ended up having lower inflation than a lot of other parts in the world. And yet the Trump administration seems very, very convinced. that the US is somehow losing out from the current international order, or maybe they feel that there's just more that they could get from restructuring it.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–4:13
2
What is the surreal atmosphere at Jackson Hole this year and why does it matter?
4:13–12:42
3
How are attacks on Fed independence affecting central‑bank credibility?
12:42–20:47
4
Why is Adam Posen the perfect guest to discuss the post‑American world?
20:47–26:33
5
How do inflation expectations and the Fed’s credibility interact in today’s economy?
26:33–34:05
6
What are the economic and inflationary impacts of the Trump‑era tariffs?
34:05–45:51
7
Why has the dollar‑treasury rate correlation reversed and what does it signal?
45:51–1:00:04
Speakers
9 identifiedMore from Odd Lots
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