Adam Posen

speaker

1,220 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2025 last heard 1 Sep

Adam Posen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.

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Odd Lots · Adam Posen on a Surreal Jackson Hole in a Post-American World · 26 Aug 2025 podcast

So what I'm trying to argue is that

The Trump administration decided that the world economy is playing the US for a soccer.

And that

Very harsh.

direct bilateral measures, starting with tariffs, but also with other threats, demands for investment, demands for military.

Assaults on social media, all these things, threats to withhold military assistance in the case of Ukraine and others.

that this will be a rebalancing, that this will get more money from these countries into the US.

And thereby make our fiscal situation better, be fairer, and somehow do great things for the US economy.

This is wrong on every level, but the fundamental point going to the insurer is I build a mental model, not a mathematical model, but a mental model that I think most people have found quite apt.

That for the last eighty years since World War Two, the US's main role in the world economy has been to be the insurance provider.

We made sure that

you could ship things through with through different oceans and get there safely, that there was basically respect for property rights, respect for intellectual property rights.

There were some standards, particularly technical standards, some brands.

There was a dollar that you could get in and out of and park money in, and it was deep enough markets and treasuries that you could get in and out that nobody cared and it didn't affect prices.

There was stability to the US currency and the treasuries that let you do that, just a whole host of things.

Plus military and alliance, as well, obviously for NATO allies, for Japan, for Korea and others.

And we charged premiums for that.

We did get premiums.

We had much lower interest rates.

People would put a lot of money into US government debt, and that made the whole economy go off better.

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