Alexander (Alex) Altmann

speaker

337 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 10 Jul

Alexander (Alex) Altmann’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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Odd Lots · The Korean Levered ETFs Shaking Markets All Around the World · 10 Jul 2026 podcast

in, say, a post-GFC environment or a post-COVID environment and benchmark it against where equity multiples are.

Equity multiples shouldn't be this high, right?

So we can get into a bigger debate about, oh, dot-com, real yields were very high and equity multiples skyrocketed.

I'm like, yeah, but the government wasn't asking you cap in hand for tons of money.

Also, that didn't end great.

Yes, but hell of a ride it was in the build-up to that.

So, Betty effectively is taking all of these inputs.

And what is it telling you right now?

It's just telling you that the forward return profile of the S&P from an asymmetry perspective on a tactical two-month time horizon is just not great right now.

We're looking at if you were to pick a random day in time and say, all right, I'm going to buy the S&P and I'll hold it for two months, 42 trading days.

the average return would be around about 190 bps, not bad, right?

And your hit rate of making money is about 73%.

So, Betty, when it is in this kind of territory, so 6, 7, it was high as sort of 10 or 11, it was telling you that you only had around about a 35% chance or even lower of making money in the S&P over that same time horizon.

The average return was basically negative.

So, it's not so much necessarily that it's telling you, oh my gosh, the market's going to crater.

It's really just an illustration of a bunch of quantitative inputs that are telling you actually the asymmetry is not great.

And that's exactly what we've seen.

The model first flashed as a warning signal late May.

S&P has kind of done nothing since then.

And so maybe in anticipation of some big correction in the equity market isn't forthcoming.

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