Alexander (Alex) Altmann

speaker

337 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 10 Jul

Alexander (Alex) Altmann’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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Odd Lots · The Korean Levered ETFs Shaking Markets All Around the World · 10 Jul 2026 podcast

And that's okay.

I still take a lot of validation in the model that is kind of telling you that to just sort of pump the brakes a bit.

let some of this froth in the equity market come out and actually get a reset, which then actually sets us up better.

I mean, ultimately earnings are still good, right?

We're still driving AI in the economy and we can get into a debate about whether that's sustainable or not.

And then we've also got to work off the assumption we're still running a massive fiscal deficit.

And whilst that environment is happening, it's quite hard to create any kind of fundamental economic downturn.

All right, so if we take the post-GFC environment, the challenge is always going to be that S&P margins were much lower for a long period after the GFC than where they are today.

And we have to acknowledge that high margins should map into higher multiples.

But we'll do the full comparison.

So post-GFC, because there's not that many periods where real yields are this high.

Real yields today on a 10-year basis are running about the 95th percentile.

And they're around about, I think, 230, give or take.

So with that being said, if you take what the average S&P multiple when real yields were this high or higher, it's a scary low number.

The S&P multiple would be around about 14 to 15 times.

And we're currently trading on around about 20.2, 20.3.

If you take the post-COVID environment, which I think is probably a better representation of what S&P operating margins look like today, we're still low.

It's around about 18 and a half times.

So you're still talking about basically a 10% multiple contraction versus where the- Let's just get a very simple question.

It's a good question.

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