Alexander Osipovich
speaker
528 appearances
11 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2017
last heard Feb 2025
Alexander Osipovich’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
If you are right, at the end of the day, you get $1 for each contract that you buy.
If you got it wrong, you get $0.
Between the beginning, whenever that contract is listed, and when ultimately you have a resolution, the price will fluctuate roughly between $0 and $1.
And the price of that in cents is basically the probability that the market assigns to it.
So if traders generally think that something is going to happen, they might price the contract at $0.70, and that reflects a 70% probability.
The ones that are in the U.S., such as CalSheet and ForecastX and Nadex, are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which imposes some rules and standards, provides licenses, but generally speaking is a weaker regulator than some of the other regulators out there, like the SEC, the Securities and Exchange Commission.
For instance, if one of these platforms wants to list a contract, the process at the CFTC is something called self-certification, where basically the platform just says, we believe this contract is compliant with the rules, we're going to list it.
and one business day goes by and then it gets listed and the CFTC has limited tools in stopping it.
In general, we're in the state right now where the U.S.-based prediction markets are testing the limits of what they're allowed to list, given that there's a new administration coming in and Trump has basically promised a kind of light-touch financial regulation.
They would argue that it's trading rather than gambling.
But increasingly, as these prediction markets have pushed into areas like sports, it's hard to distinguish what they offer from gambling.
One difference is that generally when you are betting with a traditional sports book, there is a house that you're betting against.
You go in and you place a bet.
The house gives you certain odds.
Whereas in the world of prediction markets, you are betting against other traders.
It remains to be seen how different this world is going to be than traditional sports betting.
I think we'll find out as these markets grow.
This would actually be quite similar to cryptocurrencies.
So Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies trade on many different exchanges and they trade throughout the day.
There's no central authority that says when the trading hours are.
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