Annie Duke

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227 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Oct 2024 last heard Oct 2024

Annie Duke’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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And that's because it's not really like should we

persevere more and quit less.

It's we have to figure out when is the right time to persevere and when is the right time to quit because they're really the exact same decision.

If you choose to stick, you're choosing not to quit.

If you choose to quit,

You're choosing not to stick.

And that gets to the real heart of the matter is to start stop thinking about it as one versus the other, but as the same decision.

Yeah, so I I think that this is really, Mike, one of the problems that we have as decision makers, whether it's this decision to start something.

or the decision to stop it, it's made under uncertainty.

So what that means is like if you think about the decision to start something,

We know very little at the time that we started in comparison to all there is to be known.

And then there's also just the influence of luck.

So I can make a decision to start something that's gonna work out eighty percent of the time.

And by definition, that means it's not gonna work out twenty percent of the time.

And I don't have any control over when that twenty percent is gonna happen.

That is also true.

That uncertainty is also true of the decision about whether to stick or quit once you've started something.

Is that when you are facing that decision, you're also not gonna have the f all the facts.

And you also, I assume, still don't have a time machine where you can look into the future.

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