Anton Korinek
speaker
180 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Feb 2026
last heard 27 Feb
Anton Korinek’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Feb 2026 with 1.
Appearances
is that the capabilities that we currently have are eventually going to diffuse and are eventually going to have broad, for now, at first productivity effects, because right now AI systems are still in many ways very complementary to workers.
But as soon as they reach the level where they become substitutes, there's also going to be some adverse labor market effects.
We do have a little bit of that.
Both OpenAI and Anthropic publish data on how their systems are actually used almost in real time.
And that gives us a bit of a picture of where we are.
But it tells you only so much.
So the sheer level of capabilities is probably the most important one.
Like you can follow whatever benchmarks you want or some amalgamate of benchmarks.
That tells us where the AI systems were still lagging, where they are doing already pretty amazing well.
And, you know, one of the kind of biggest shortcomings right now, but of course, from the perspective of workers, that's great because it makes us more complimentary, is that these systems are not learning dynamically.
The way that current LLMs work is they're trained once, and after that, the weights are frozen in place.
And that means for a lot of work applications, even if there are very basic mistakes, they have to go through the same mistake again and again and again and again because they can learn only so much from it.
So that's another sort of breakthrough that I'm looking for.
And then maybe a third chart that I'm regularly following is this Matter chart that looks at how long of a task AI can automate.
And I think they usually find every seven months that timeframe doubles.
And looking at how this is continuing,
is also quite helpful in understanding whether the exponential growth trajectory is intact or maybe even accelerating, as it has seemed recently, or whether we are anywhere near plateauing.
This is the chart that's holding up the entire economy.
Yep.
One of my senior colleagues asked me, are you really sure you want to throw away your career over this?
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