Aram Verdian
speaker
731 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 24 Jul
Aram Verdian’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Yeah, and maybe I can unpack that a little bit because it sounds like a really strong statement.
A couple of things I'll say.
In venture, and you can go back many, many decades, there's this concept of dispersion of returns where a handful of firms generate most of the returns.
So if you look at going back 40, 50 years and you look at
the value that's generated by venture backed companies, there's only a handful of firms that are participating in those companies at the early stages and own meaningful amounts on their cap tables.
So double clicking on that, if you look at the dispersion of the top decile, top 5% in venture relative to the top quartile or the median, that delta is larger than in other asset classes in the private markets.
And so
if you want to look more recently and our database has shown this we've looked at and our data is only us-based we've looked at over 3 000 venture capital firms in the us and our data has shown that there are less than 25 firms out of 3 000 that have consistently generated 3x net or better funds consecutively which tells you there's less than one percent of the firms
can consistently generate 3x net.
And why is it 3x net?
Why is it not 2x, 2.5 net?
Well, in venture capital, you're waiting for 10 plus years to get to liquidity.
And so you need to outperform the public markets and other asset classes in the private markets that can generate liquidity more quickly, even if the return profile is slightly lower than the 3x, to essentially justify that illiquidity.
And today, if anything, the liquidity in venture is...
further stretched out the average unicorn is over 12 years old in the us and so for that you need to generate two three four hundred basis points net above the public markets and also private equity that can get you 2x more quickly because of that we have found and this is how we have done our investing over the last 26 years there are only a handful of venture capital firms that can be in that less than one percent so is it a winner take all there's i think the
Conclusion is, and when I unpack that statement, is there's only a handful of firms across the whole stack of venture capital that can generate that consistent 3x net plus returns.
Less than 25.
I'm being generous.
It's actually less than that.
And by the way, let me give you more specificity on that.
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