Aram Verdian
speaker
731 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 24 Jul
Aram Verdian’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Our database shows Vintager 2005 through today, so about 20 years.
where we have found out of 3,000 venture capital firms in the U.S., only 20 of them have generated consistent 3x net returns.
It tracks to the concept of dispersion of returns in venture.
Because every year, David, if I asked you how many companies matter, and let me define what matter is, multi-billion dollar outcomes in the public markets or M&A.
like five, 10 billion plus, how many companies are there per year?
There aren't going to be 30 to 50 every year that are generated in a venture back.
It's probably going to be 10, 20.
If that, there are years where it's far less than that.
And so it actually tracks to exactly that.
And so how many firms are going to be backing the seed series A, series B of those companies where they own enough, where a single deal can return multiples of their funds?
So it actually, it's less the underlying fund data.
You have to double click on that and say, what's driving that?
It's the actual company dispersion at exit that matters.
The other way to think about it is, I think a lot about how much is raised by venture firms and what needs to happen to generate a 3X on the overall fundraise.
So,
Depending on the year you look at, we were at 1.200 billion during COVID, then less than 100 billion.
We're sort of right around 200 billion plus at this point per year raised in venture capital in the US.
To 3x that, you need to generate over a trillion, two, three trillion in market cap at exit and own enough of those companies to get a 3x on the 200 billion raise for that one year.
Well, I would argue you can get to three to five trillion in enterprise value at exit, but how many companies are going to do that collectively?
It's going to be in Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, SpaceX, et cetera.
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