Arden Zwelling

speaker

915 appearances 9 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2025 last heard 3d ago

Arden Zwelling’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 5 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 3.

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Blue Jays Talk · JTP: Rays Check-In, Eric Hartman & What’s Happened to Toronto? · 20 Jul 2026 podcast

Sure yeah I think the Orioles have won seven in a row that's kind of part of what's made the calculus so difficult is that the Red Sox went from being out of it and we're trying to figure out where Sonny Gray is going to get traded to to I mean having a really strong playoff odds right now and the Orioles getting hot as well has been very problematic for the Blue Jays so instead of the Red Sox being that team that you're writing off in the wildcard race now the Blue Jays are

kind of that team which is not where you want to be so I think Fangraphs had it at what 14% playoff odds this morning feels about right there's probably about a 14% chance that they go on the like 8-2 run that they'd have to go in the next 10 in order to justify buying and turn this thing around but I think the overwhelming odds and the very likely probability is that they go like 500 over their next 10 and end up selling at the deadline

these kind of buy or sell decisions they are looking at well what's the likelihood that we can pull this together they can't go in with a blind optimism or a blind pessimism these next two weeks yeah teams will have a proprietary version of that just like they all have a proprietary version of wins above replacement and they all have a proprietary version of like run value on pitches like they just so they will have their own playoff odds that will inform their decision making um

It's funny.

I was sitting down this morning, like just trying to figure out what the hell we're going to talk about on these shows tonight.

And I just started playing around with it.

If the Blue Jays win every one of their series the rest of the way.

So if they go like two and one in every three game series, three and one in every four game series through the end of the season, they'll win 89 games.

So that is so in that entirely like impossible scenario in which they win every single series the rest of the way they only get to 89 wins unless there's like a sweep or two in there and then you could bump it up into the 90s like that's just how difficult the math is for the Blue Jays right now.

Yeah, 2024 was more of like a traditional year in the American League where it was going to take like 89 wins to get into that last wildcard spot.

Like this year, it might only take 84.

So that playoff probability is a bit higher.

And imagine at this point in 2024, the playoff odds are probably like

Five, six, seven percent.

And that's just like a much easier decision to make.

We haven't really seen the Blue Jays in this like murky middle area where there's still like this remote possibility, but a possibility that they they sweep the Rays and then they go and win two or three in Boston.

It's pretty clear what to do when you're at 0.8%.

I think so.

So if you're the Blue Jays, like you're just working on multiple tracks right now, but you're always working on multiple tracks going into the trade deadline because you want a fulsome view of the market, an idea of just like you, even if you're a seller, you want to know what other sellers are selling and just like an idea of, so if you're like trading a Kevin Gosman, for instance, you want to know what other starting pitchers are available, what the asks are for those other starting pitchers, and then that can kind of frame your own ask.

and your own understanding of how buyers are going to operate and what options they're going to have.

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