Arthur Hayes
speaker
1,864 appearances
4 recordings
3 series
first heard Jan 2026
last heard 22 Jun
Arthur Hayes’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Jan 2026 with 2.
Appearances
Worst performing bond market since 1812 in the United States from 2022 to 2025, three or five, three-year rolling average, right?
So it doesn't take much when you're a highly levered economy.
And the levers are even more insane because...
People are going to print that much more money because they believe that that's the way to win elections.
And so when somebody stands up and says, hey, maybe we should try something different, just the threat of it actually happening, just factoring in that probability, even if it might never happen, is what takes investors to say, guess what?
I'm going to exit stage left and maybe I'm just going to sit in cash for now.
I think we're talking 1929 to 2008.
Because the AI CapEx...
build-out is as big as, or maybe I should say 1907, the railroads.
So 1907, 1903, whenever the crash due to the robber barons and the railroad trust in the United States.
The build-out of AI capex is as big or bigger than the build-out of the railroad infrastructure in the 19th century, which was one of the largest, if you look at percent of GDP, capex build-outs in modern human history.
That is what we're doing right now with AI hyperscalers, whether that's in the United States
or in China.
And guess what?
Railroad business is a shitty fucking business to be in as a long-term investor.
And sooner or later, investors will realize, oh shit, I'm investing in the new age railroad.
I don't want to be the new age railroad.
Google's not the new age railroad.
They are now, but Google wasn't the new age railroad in 2001.
They were the thing that used the cheap fiber optic connectivity to build their service.
Showing 1061–1080 of 1,864 · page 54 of 94
← Previous
Next →