Asjylyn Loder
speaker
56 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Mar 2018
last heard Jul 2018
Asjylyn Loder’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
For example, surveys of investor sentiment turn out to be a terrible way to know that a bear market's coming.
PE ratios, also valuations, turned out to be a terrible way to time the market.
It certainly is.
And of course, you know, we have a couple of days left.
So that back-to-back decline might not happen yet.
But definitely the rise in volatility has certainly caught people's attention.
Indeed, and quite a few analysts I talked to sort of had that same estimation, that fear was kind of overwhelming some of the more positive news and that tax cuts might still have a positive influence on corporate earnings, that there's still a ways to go yet.
I think the way Bank of America described it was long in the tooth but not there yet in terms of describing the bull market.
Yes.
Well, an obvious one, when Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX, is going higher, certainly that presages a market downturn.
Another one is growing consumer confidence.
When consumer confidence gets over a certain level, generally that has also presaged a bear market.
Consumers becoming a little bit overconfident, perhaps.
This is what the analyst told me.
And when you think about it, as one of the analysts quoted in the story mentions, at the end of a bull market, right when it's about to crash, tends to be when investors jump in with both feet.
So it does tend to be, you know, surveys of investor confidence tend to be a not great way to time the market.
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