Astro Teller
speaker
540 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 28 Jul
Astro Teller’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Choice A has an expected utility of 10 million.
of one million.
That is a rational thing to do.
What you have just done is by moving from thinking about risk by itself, you've moved to thinking about reward divided by risk.
At X, I think everybody has internalized the idea if you're working on something and you could find something that has twice the risk but four times the upside,
You should probably stop what you're currently doing and work on that other thing instead because it has twice the expected utility.
And so moving people away from risk minimization to reward risk ratio maximization is one of the essences of innovation.
There absolutely is.
So the tension is on the one hand, you don't want to excuse make your way sort of to the horizon.
where you're working on something that really is sort of a zombie, but you keep it alive because you're like, just one more try, just one more try.
You never know.
So that would be bad.
That's the opposite of what I'm describing.
On the other hand, as you're pointing out, our most successful things, things like Waymo, things like Wing, more recently our moonshot for the electric grid called Tapestry, which is now profoundly important around the world for grid operators,
Like, I can't tell you the number of times we almost stopped it because we just we couldn't figure out where there was a there there, which way we should go.
Like, what are we really doing here?
Do we have something that's important enough to continue to take this kind of risk and to spend significant money on this?
It's an art as much as a science.
That's just part of the reality is that there isn't a right answer.
Every one of these things is a bit of a snowflake because you're always going.
Showing 121–140 of 540 · page 7 of 27
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