Ben Buchanan

I think we are going to see extraordinarily capable AI systems. I don't love the term artificial general intelligence, but I think that will fit in the next couple of years, quite likely during Donald Trump's presidency. And I think there's a view that this has always been something of corporate hype or speculation.

I think we are going to see extraordinarily capable AI systems. I don't love the term artificial general intelligence, but I think that will fit in the next couple of years, quite likely during Donald Trump's presidency. And I think there's a view that this has always been something of corporate hype or speculation.

And I think one of the things I saw in the White House when I was decidedly not in a corporate position was trend lines that looked very clear. And what we tried to do under the president's leadership was get the U.S. government and our society ready for these systems.

And I think one of the things I saw in the White House when I was decidedly not in a corporate position was trend lines that looked very clear. And what we tried to do under the president's leadership was get the U.S. government and our society ready for these systems.

The sort of canonical definition of AGI, which again is a term I don't love, is a system... It'll be good if every time you say AGI, you caveat that you dislike the term. It'll sink in, right?

The sort of canonical definition of AGI, which again is a term I don't love, is a system... It'll be good if every time you say AGI, you caveat that you dislike the term. It'll sink in, right?

I'm trying to get it in the training data. A canonical definition of AGI is a system capable of doing almost any cognitive task a human can do.

I'm trying to get it in the training data. A canonical definition of AGI is a system capable of doing almost any cognitive task a human can do.

I don't know that we'll quite see that in the next four years or so, but I do think we'll see something like that, where the breadth of the system is remarkable, but also its depth, its capacity to, in some cases, exceed human capabilities, kind of regardless of the cognitive discipline. Systems that can replace human beings in cognitively demanding jobs.

I don't know that we'll quite see that in the next four years or so, but I do think we'll see something like that, where the breadth of the system is remarkable, but also its depth, its capacity to, in some cases, exceed human capabilities, kind of regardless of the cognitive discipline. Systems that can replace human beings in cognitively demanding jobs.

I think that's right. I'm not a labor market economist, but I think that the systems are extraordinarily capable. In some ways, I'm very fond of the quote, the future is already here. It's just unevenly distributed. And I think unless you are engaging with this technology, you probably don't appreciate how good it is today.

I think that's right. I'm not a labor market economist, but I think that the systems are extraordinarily capable. In some ways, I'm very fond of the quote, the future is already here. It's just unevenly distributed. And I think unless you are engaging with this technology, you probably don't appreciate how good it is today.

And then it's important to recognize today is the worst it's ever going to be. It's only going to get better. And I think that is the dynamic that in the White House world, We were tracking and that the next White House and our country as a whole is going to have to track and adapt to in really short order.

And then it's important to recognize today is the worst it's ever going to be. It's only going to get better. And I think that is the dynamic that in the White House world, We were tracking and that the next White House and our country as a whole is going to have to track and adapt to in really short order.

And what's fascinating to me is that this is the first revolutionary technology that is not funded by the Department of Defense, basically. And if you go back historically, last 100 years or so, nukes, space, early days of the internet, early days of the microprocessor, early days of large-scale aviation, radar, GPS, the list is very, very long.

And what's fascinating to me is that this is the first revolutionary technology that is not funded by the Department of Defense, basically. And if you go back historically, last 100 years or so, nukes, space, early days of the internet, early days of the microprocessor, early days of large-scale aviation, radar, GPS, the list is very, very long.

All of that tech is fundamentally comes from DoD money. And it's the private sector inventing it, to be sure. But the central government role is... gave the Department of Defense and the U.S. government an understanding of the technology that by default, it does not have an AI, and also gave the U.S. government a capacity to shape where that technology goes, that by default, we don't have an AI.

All of that tech is fundamentally comes from DoD money. And it's the private sector inventing it, to be sure. But the central government role is... gave the Department of Defense and the U.S. government an understanding of the technology that by default, it does not have an AI, and also gave the U.S. government a capacity to shape where that technology goes, that by default, we don't have an AI.

I do think there are profound economic and military and intelligence capabilities that would be downstream of getting to AGI or transformative AI. And I do think it is fundamental for U.S. national security that we continue to lead AI. I think the quote that certainly I thought about a fair amount was actually from Kennedy in his famous Rice speech in 62, the we're going to the moon speech.

I do think there are profound economic and military and intelligence capabilities that would be downstream of getting to AGI or transformative AI. And I do think it is fundamental for U.S. national security that we continue to lead AI. I think the quote that certainly I thought about a fair amount was actually from Kennedy in his famous Rice speech in 62, the we're going to the moon speech.