Ben Eisen

speaker

1,467 appearances 35 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2017 last heard Nov 2024

Ben Eisen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Chance of a Recession in the U.S. Keeps Growing · 26 Jun 2018 podcast

But by all accounts, the economy is pretty strong in the U.S. matched

If anything, the U.S. matched

economy is accelerating relative to its peers, to other countries around the world. matched

And even though we've had this volatility, it's hard to say that there's any kind of weakness that's shown by that. matched

Yeah, this is basically a look at the yield curve, kind of plots, maturities of different bonds against each other. matched

And when short-term rates rise above long-term rates, the curve is said to invert. matched

And generally that's happened a year or two before a recession. matched

So you've had that sort of flattening of the yield curve recently. matched

And that's one of these things that economists and markets people tend to look at because it tends to show that matched

So once that inversion comes, then a recession might not be that far behind. matched

That said, the inversion hasn't happened yet, but the yield curve is getting flatter and flatter, as they say. matched

And just to be clear, that's sort of one of the inputs into this model that we took a look at today. matched

And that has been one of the primary causes of pushing up the chances of a recession in the model. matched

The tariffs and the threat of escalations of trade tensions are something that everyone's trying to grapple with at the moment. matched

And economists are trying to sort of put that into their models, but it's tough because no one knows exactly what's going to happen or how it will escalate or whether it will escalate. matched

But in a worst-case scenario, I think some are definitely predicting that this aging economic cycle could kind of turn into a contraction quicker than people think if it gets out of hand. matched

Thank you. matched

WSJ Your Money Briefing · Weak Dollar Pumps Corporate Results, For Now · 30 Apr 2018 podcast

So you have the U.S.

dollar, and the dollar has a value relative to every other currency in the world, and they're always fluctuating.

They trade back and forth, and they go up and down every single day.

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