Ben Rhodes

Some of it is they took some shots from Israel, obviously.

And I don't just mean the nuclear program.

I mean, like their air defenses got taken out, some of their proxy network got depleted.

But more of it is just, it's an old sclerotic shitty regime.

That's the main problem they have is it's a corrupt sclerotic regime.

ideological regime that has not delivered for its own people for a very long time.

And we've seen protests, you know, for decades in Iran.

And each time it feels like they come back bigger, you know, and they don't have answers to the things that people are protesting over.

I also think it's important to note that the 2022 protests, the Women's Life Freedom protests, succeeded in some respects.

Women are starting to go uncovered in Iran, which is a sign that the regime couldn't reimpose its will, right?

That's a sign of weakness too.

And so I think you have a lot of internal cracks in that regime.

The problem going forward is there's no clear path to what would come next, right?

Because the reality is it's like the Venezuela thing.

Let's say the Supreme Leader got the protests built and built and built, and the Supreme Leader fled the coup and went to Moscow to hang out with Assad.

The IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, are probably the people that would run the country.

They're the people with the guns.

And Trump bombing them isn't going to change that.

Lindsey Graham putting on a hat isn't going to change that either.

And so I think I don't expect there to be some regime collapse followed by some new government return to the Shah or an election next week.