Bernard Hickey

speaker

288 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 12 Jul

Bernard Hickey’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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The Prosperity Project · Why mortgage rates don’t follow the OCR · 12 Jul 2026 podcast

The question is, how much higher will they go?

And also, will there be much action in the economy now?

I think actually that they could have held on and just held there for a bit longer.

It doesn't feel like an economy that needs to be hosed down.

Yeah, no, there's a lot of people being hosed down by lots of different things at the moment.

And also a lot of people are not feeling wealthy.

You've got to remember that the last three or four years has been unprecedented for most people who own assets.

And in particular, I'm thinking of a house, but also a lot of people have got KiwiSaver or maybe some term deposits.

And up until 2022, 2023...

The dirty little secret of the New Zealand economy is that anyone who owned assets actually made more from their assets than they did from their real job.

And for the last 20 years, just about every year that's been the case, now we've had three or four years of a situation where the assets –

have earned virtually nothing, at least the housing assets part of it, and it's your job that really makes the difference.

And so for a lot of people, that extra feel-good factor of looking at one roof or whatever the site was to see what the value of your house was and what your equity had gone to, you can't rely on that anymore.

In fact, if you were really unlucky and you bought in 2021 or early 2022,

You know, you don't want to look at that website.

So that's why at the moment it doesn't feel like a really sort of bubbly, strong economy that you'd need to hose down if you're a reserve bank.

And you're right.

This inflation is coming from somewhere else.

It's not like we created it.

It's coming from overseas with energy prices, and it's coming from what we call the administered sector.

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