Billy Rose
speaker
210 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard Jan 2025
Billy Rose’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Yeah. He's buying the product. Why wouldn't he put it on? Right.
Yeah, so... 10,000 acres, we have four check block fields. We agree on where the fields are gonna be. We have these 10 to 40 acre check blocks. In each field is a treated and untreated. We're gonna measure the delta of that four times. So we agree on the four check block fields. Whatever that average of those four is for the delta, did it achieve 25 bushels or greater on the corn or was it less?
Then we, if it's less, we pay 450 a bushel, you know, times the enrolled acres, all right? All the enrolled acres, yeah.
But our job is to make sure that the enterprise, you know, is going to be successful. So if the guy's spending $100 to $125, he's going to use the products. He's going to apply at the right time. We're agronomists and we're flying over those fields. We're putting drones over those fields. People are walking the fields. We're trying to say at V3 to V5, you know, we need to hit the first shot. Okay.
At Tassel, we need to hit the last shot. Okay. Yep. So it is a partnership there. You want them to be successful.
Oh, yeah. So we ran 50 acres. check block fields last year. Okay. Not as robust as I would like. Okay. And basically, we took our seed trial fields and we put a buffer of 120 feet. We did untreated and treated. Okay. And then we compared all those results. But the beauty was we were doing all the actual CROs, the check block fields ourself. So we trusted the data source. We trusted the protocols.
We trusted the- Well, you must feel good about the data. Exactly. Then the data though, we go to our actuarial team and we give it to our data scientist. Okay. Then he builds out a risk model and then we'd run it through a Monte Carlo simulation, which goes back to some of those classes that we really didn't always go to it. Did you go to Iowa State? For a little bit. Yeah. I did. Didn't we all.
Yes. So what we do is we run it through this model, a Monte Carlo simulation that creates the standard deviation and the mean running at over 10,000 iterations. So we get a really good idea as to how many times this will work or not work. Yeah.
We've modeled. We're going to be paying. Oh, yeah. There's so many factors out of our control. Yeah. And that's where we work with our reinsurance partners. Okay.
Yeah, it is. And at the same time, we're not looking to make home runs. We're very happy with a smaller margin so that we could keep the cost of that performance guarantee embedded into that package reasonable. Okay? So what do you call this? We're calling it the Yield Optimizer Program today.
And so we're working with two agribusinesses that are out there selling it through their distribution networks. We've had great success so far. Predominantly, it's in the Illinois and surrounding state area. and we do have a limited capacity going back to reinsurance capacity. But we have a lot for this first year. So we'd like to write about up to a million acres.
And again, we're really excited then. We're going to have four check block fields per farmer, and all that data is going to come back in, and that adds to our data flywheel effect, right? So we'll be able to take that Monte Carlo model and make it even a lot better. Keep learning. Yeah.
You do. And we look at two different data sets. We look at your crop insurance data sets, and then we take the as-applied data. And we have a specialized team that cleans up the as-applied data. As you know, a lot of combines are not calibrated. There's a lot of glitches in some of the software. Some guys don't turn it on. But that's part of our responsibility is we want to help you get –
data that you can trust.
It's very hard. And it's a lot of work. We have millions of dollars of specialized equipment. We have a whole team. We take our CRO applications very serious.
Yeah. Always go to our website, AcreShield or Optimal Ag Solutions, which is our parent company. We put a lot of thought into that name, Optimal Ag Solutions. We work with B2B ag retailers, ag manufacturers in developing customized, bespoke warranty solutions for ease of adoption with their products with the farmers. But we're going to be a farm con.
In fact, to take off this afternoon, might see you guys on the interstate heading the same direction down in Kansas City. Then we're going to the Row Crop Exchange January 20th through the 22nd in Cape Coral, Florida.
Yep. Yep. Then we're going to Uncommon Farms on the 23rd through the 25th at San Antonio, Texas. And then we'll be at Iowa Power, of course, Commodity Classic. Yeah, so you'll see us out there. Please stop by. We'd love to just meet, understand some of your challenges and see if we can help. Or if we can't help, at least we'll give you our advice to point you in a different direction.
That's great. Cool. I do want to say one other thing. You know, as we come into crop insurance season, right, that necessary evil that I have to go out there and go buy some crop insurance. Okay. I am a big fan of the crop insurance. I don't know if you guys remember the history. In 1981, the feds ran the crop insurance. It was $300 million program.
What do you think the size of the crop insurance program since it was privatized in 81 it is today?
Showing 101–120 of 210 · page 6 of 11
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