Brad Setser

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466 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Nov 2024 last heard Apr 2025

Brad Setser’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Odd Lots · Odd Lots Live: What to Watch on Election Night and Beyond · 5 Nov 2024 podcast

It created incentives where ever broadening sectors of the US economy.

So one of the things I point out in the uh Aspen Economic Strategy paper.

is that semiconductor equipment manufacturing

actually a pretty strategically important industry, has between two thousand and five and twenty twenty-three, twenty-four, moved a lot of its manufacturing and all of its profits to Southeast Asia.

Why we thought that was in our strategic interest uh

Uh is beyond me.

Uh, but it wasn't just a one-off, it's been a continuous process.

And then obviously, China enters the WTO or the Chinese surplus explodes.

And I think that generated uh a period of unhealthy globalization as well.

And so that's why I'm a little worried right now that the increase in China's surplus.

judged on the gl a global basis, not on the bilateral basis against the US, is on a magnitude comparable as a share of world GDP to that seen immediately after WTO entry.

The Piffy answer.

Would be that there can be no consensus in China.

That doesn't include President She.

So actually I don't think there is consensus, because I think President Xi doesn't share this diagnosis.

I think President Xi, generally speaking, views support for households as unproductive and he views investment, particularly investment in high-tech sectors, as productive.

The intellectual leap that giving checks to households, taking less from households, lets households spend more and therefore supports investments, not just consumption, but it supports investment throughout the economy is not one that President Xi obviously shares.

So yeah, I don't think there is yet uh consensus.

I've noticed.

is not a topic that I prefer to talk about, but I will talk about it.

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