Odd Lots Live: What to Watch on Election Night and Beyond
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What is the significance of Election Day and why did Odd Lots host a live event?
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.
And I'm Joe Weisenthal.
Joe, this is very special. This is actually I this must be our fastest turnaround time on an episode ever.
Well, it is election day. Yes. Uh I think we had a technically a faster turnaround uh day on the day of the Baltimore Bridge collapse.
Oh, okay, fine. Fine. But this was like four hours of content that we are squeezing into a very timely episode. So what you are about to hear is a live recording of the Outlots podcast, multiple panels, multiple conversations that took place on November fourth at a recording in front of a live audience in New York.
That's right. So today is election day. Last night was election eve. We figured a bunch of people, if they have preferences in this election, were probably anxious, looking for something to do other than just sort of refresh the internet and refresh Twitter all night. So we figured why not get some of our favorite guests over the years from the podcast and get our fans who we always love uh seeing, our listeners, and uh hang out and talk politics and politics.
I stress drink. I'll admit it. Yeah.
I didn't.
But what better way to spend election day than listening to uh some live recordings of the Authoughts podcast? So, what you are about to hear is a selection of the conversations. We had some amazing guests. So we started with Zoe Lu. She is, of course, a senior fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. And we had her with Jordan Schneider of the China Talk podcast. We've spoken to both of them before. before, but we had a great conversation about what's going on in China right now and what could possibly happen with US China trade.
Right. And then where this particular episode will pick up, then we had a conversation with Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research, Skanda Amarnath, executive director at Employ America. And we had a special guest that we kind of have to explain here for a second, because otherwise some of the conversation might not make any sense. We had Zvoshewitz and he is a prediction marketer. Market's better, he's a writer, he's a legendary designer of Magic the Gathering decks, he's an advisor to Polymarket, he used to be a Jane Street trader. We're gonna have to have him on sometime, Tracy, just for the totally separate. She was great. I
just want to talk to him about deck construction. Deck
construction in Jane Street. Let's do like that episode.
Okay, but Zvi, in addition to all those things, set up a betting pool on Manifold for which podcast he would actually appear on in 2024. And one of those options was OutLots.
Right. He set it up at the beginning of the year. And so there's all these uh different possibilities. Which podcast will this V appear on? And just again to sort of set the stage. We never announced that Z V was gonna be part of this. He
was our mystery guest. He
was our mystery guest, but we flashed the market. onto the screen behind us while we were at uh caveat, the uh place where we recorded the episode. And then during the conversation, we watched as the s market slowly repriced. In s very
repriced up and down.
Yeah it was very strange. I I my belief in efficient markets has been completely debunked. No, you know what it was? No, you know what
it was? This is actually really interesting. There was someone in the audience who was using free manifold tokens to bring the probability down, even as Svee was actually on stage. So a live experiment in how prediction markets work.
How they actually work.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the significance of Election Day and why did Odd Lots host a live event?
0:00–7:47
2
How do prediction markets work and what did the live experiment reveal?
7:47–17:02
3
What are the main market‑watching cues (polls, odds, real‑time data) that traders should track on election night?
17:02–25:29
4
How will the election outcome affect short‑term macro indicators like ISM, rates and consumer confidence?
25:29–35:45
5
What are the latest insights on U.S. productivity trends and why do they matter for policy?
35:45–46:07
6
Why does the guest describe globalization as ‘unhealthy’ and where did it go wrong?
46:07–57:27
7
What policy levers (tax, trade, sanctions) could address the unhealthy aspects of globalization?
57:27–1:08:57
8
What does Brad Setzer see as the biggest global challenges the next president will inherit?
1:08:57–1:19:46
Speakers
10 identifiedMore from Odd Lots
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