Zvi Mowshowitz
speaker
128 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard Nov 2024
Zvi Mowshowitz’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
The digitalization of Africa is gonna power its growth.
I'm an advisor to polymarket.
I mean someone's not sure.
He's literally on
I how do you know to bet yes, but you don't think you should take it farther than that?
I take them at least as seriously as any other data point or source of information that we have available.
They are the best thing we have.
Well, if you're on the internet, what other source do you have other than the actual broadcast?
Like obviously if you're looking at the poll not just the polls, but like the actual ballots and you're like, Oh, I guess we know who won, then that's better than a prediction market.
But anything short of that that we have is going to be incorporated into the prediction market, right?
So like the polls, the aggregations, the projections, all of that gets worked into how we trade.
The prediction markets.
So for the prediction markets to be wrong, there has to be a systematic mistake.
And those mistakes do happen, and you can, in fact, profit from them, but they tend not to be very large.
doing?
So the idea is if you have a poll and you come up with the same result as every other pollster, and so everyone is saying Harris plus one or Trump plus one, you come out with Harris plus one or Trump plus one or zero.
Then no matter what happens in the election, this is not your fault, right?
You didn't screw up.
But if you were to say Harris plus four and then Trump wins that state, then suddenly everyone looks at you and goes, You're terrible, your career is over, you're an idiot.
And to a lesser extent, if it's Trump plus four.
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