Zvi Mowshowitz

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128 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Nov 2024 last heard Nov 2024

Zvi Mowshowitz’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Odd Lots · Odd Lots Live: What to Watch on Election Night and Beyond · 5 Nov 2024 podcast

So what a lot of these pollsters are very clearly doing from statistical analysis of the polls is they are cooking their books.

putting their fingers on the scale to make sure that their number comes back very close to what everyone else is saying.

And there are only a few, like New York Times Morning Consult, that are clearly not doing that.

And often they'll also do this thing where they'll take a poll and they'll see the result is like way off.

And then maybe they just won't release it or they'll find a way to adjust it or whatever they have to do.

And Nate Silver recent uh posted recently on Twitter the chance of all these polls

Coming in this close, even if the race was actually tied, was on the order of one in nine trillion.

So it's clearly just not a coincidence.

occur for Trump versus Harris?

So the payout depends on the exact terms of the contract.

So four years ago, we had a lot of very interesting discussions going on behind the scenes and a lot of very public yelling.

as different sites proposed to pay out based on the fact that Biden had actually won the election.

And other people very much disputing that Biden hadn't won the election and in fact buying Trump long after Biden had won the election.

Yeah, I made some money on that.

That was kinda awesome.

And so, I mean, like the b the bets before election day, they did okay.

I won them, but I should have held my money.

The bets after were so much better.

Uh but the way it works is there's an technical rule for when the bet pays out and this can vary based on where you bet.

So you know one of the ways to do it is you say, okay, if the networks call the election, then that counts because they're being very conservative these days, and then we pay out immediately, no matter what happens, and that way you don't have to hold it for weeks and weeks, including if there's another dispute, which you know we all hope there isn't, but you never know.

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