Zvi Mowshowitz
speaker
128 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard Nov 2024
Zvi Mowshowitz’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Sure, that could easily happen.
So you re you earlier asked what happens on election night.
And what happens on election night is that the odds will move dramatically.
And they will respond very quickly to every piece of news.
And there's both the reaction that happens when the news is available to those who are paying attention.
So like if the counties file their numbers online, there's some people who are downloading the information from the counties and they have their spreadsheets ready and they're analyzing all the details and they're trying to stay ahead of the game.
And then there's the people who are watching the news and they're like, oh, they've network called Wisconsin.
And then they suddenly, you know, the money comes in.
But of course it's kind of embarrassing, isn't it?
That's right.
So if if you know what the calls are going to be, you can clearly make some money by doing something before the market moves.
But this is often true of the there's there's one set of people who have one set of information, another set of people who have a different set of information, which is the you know, c coming to them slower, right?
They're they're more square action, they're more
but sophisticated.
And they still help make the market more accurate in general, but they're often predictable somewhat in advance.
Uh but there are transaction costs to be able to do that.
Neil, I know one of your people only have so much capital.
Like all the major players on election night are gonna be somewhat capital constrained in the prediction markets because they're often gonna see there's some sort of systematic mispricing or some sort of opportunity and they're gonna have to watch their bankrolls and make sure they don't spend too much.
Right.
So
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