Brad Setser

speaker
466 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Nov 2024 last heard Apr 2025

Brad Setser’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Um cast.
You did.
Look, I am not the first to make this observation.
I think it's an observation that has influenced politics and policy in the United States and in Europe.
Uh China does not have a full market economy.
The government runs the banking system.
The banking system still dominates the distribution of credit within the Chinese economy.
It favors some sectors over others.
The Chinese state, in its many layers at the central government level, but also at the provincial level, provides a lot of equity investment for Chinese companies.
And so you can argue that China doesn't just have one industrial policy, it kind of has twenty, because all the different provinces have their own industrial policy trying to build up provincial champions that become national champions.
And in the process, they get cheap capital, very cheap capital.
There isn't a I mean the private equity industry in China exists, but it's not demanding you lever up to get a fifteen percent internal rate of return.
Um it is it exists to provide a bit of a veneer of private capital for strategies in strategic sectors.
There's a lot of patient capital that has gone in to sectors that are quite capital intensive.
And that are willing to accept high risk and low rates of return, in part because it is state capital.
And as a result, in those sectors where this internal competitive hothouse generates globally competitive products, production migrates to China.
So that is this the trend that was famously exhibited in the solar industry.
Joe loves excavators.
It's a slightly different story.
But you know, 20 years ago, China was importing a lot of excavators actually from the United States.
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