Cabot Phillips

speaker

8,678 appearances 273 recordings 6 series first heard Nov 2024 last heard 4d ago

Cabot Phillips’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 147 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 33.

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Yeah, some people have a countdown for Christmas or football season.

For me, it is always the next election.

Presidential race, 834 days away.

Again, who's keeping track?

And now the midterms, less than 100 days out.

So let's start with the House, where Democrats are very confident.

Prediction markets right now have them with an 80% chance of taking the House.

And it's easy to see why.

Over the last 50 years, the party out of power gains an average of 23 House seats.

And right now, they only need to gain six seats to have a majority.

And if you look at the 18 or so toss-up races in the House, 14 are being defended by Republicans.

So the GOP, they're on defense.

In a typical year, for those reasons, you would think that the Republicans were toast.

but this is not a typical year.

First, we just saw a massive redistricting battle that was undoubtedly won by Republicans.

They netted anywhere from 12 to 14 seats, mainly in deep red states in the South.

That gives them a bit of a cushion, and perhaps more important, the Democratic brand itself is just not all that popular right now.

If you look at generic ballots where they ask people, would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat for Congress?

Two months ago, Democrats were ahead by eight points.

Today, Democrats are ahead by a modest five points, so it's getting closer, and that's with Republicans facing some headwinds.

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