Cathal Nolan
speaker
74 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 26 Jul
Cathal Nolan’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
It happens typically every three to seven years and it occurs across the Pacific Ocean, whereby we see a weakening or in some cases a reversal of trade winds.
That leads to an upwelling of much warmer water off the western coast of South America and it has a greater impact through the tropical regions of the world typically.
But it leads to very high abnormal temperatures in these areas, especially so across
the location of the south coast of South America, whereby we see sea surface temperatures increasing here significantly.
Now, in relation to the forthcoming El Niño event, we are seeing temperature anomalies in the region.
The models have kind of developed a median average of around about 3.4 to 3.6 degrees Celsius.
Now to put that into perspective, the strongest El Niños that we've seen to date occurred in 1876 to 1877 and also in 2015 into 2016.
That saw a temperature anomaly of roughly 2.7 degrees Celsius.
We are now looking at that temperature anomaly of 3.4 to 3.6.
So we're entering uncharted territory with regards to this particular El Niño event and the likely implications that that will have.
Globally, in terms of our weather patterns over the next 18 months.
It is a naturally occurring phenomenon.
We have a record going back to at least the 1500s in terms of being able to analyse past El Niño events.
What we're seeing at the moment is unprecedented in terms of the strength of it, but it is a naturally occurring phenomenon.
Apologies.
Now, it is expected that anthropogenic climate change, the impacts of the burning of fossil fuels are enhancing and strengthening these particular El Niño events.
And this particular El Niño that we're seeing or the intensity of it
would have been expected to come much later on in this century.
The fact that we're seeing it occurring this early with this level of intensity is quite alarming, and certainly it has climate scientists and meteorologists globally quite concerned for the potential impacts, as we mentioned, specifically across the tropical regions of the world, but also having an impact on global weather patterns in other areas as well, including for ourselves here,
during the forthcoming autumn and winter, where typically we see milder weather conditions during the autumn and the first half of the winter, and typically drier but cooler conditions into the second half of the winter.
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