Chamath

Well, I thought the Mearsheimer Jeffrey Sachs panel was great. I thought it would be, which is why I helped organize it. But I was just glad that the audience, so many people in the audience reacted and said that was the surprise hit of the conference.

Well, I thought the Mearsheimer Jeffrey Sachs panel was great. I thought it would be, which is why I helped organize it. But I was just glad that the audience, so many people in the audience reacted and said that was the surprise hit of the conference.

I would say that was my favorite of the event. One of the best panels I've ever been part of. It's the most viewed.

I would say that was my favorite of the event. One of the best panels I've ever been part of. It's the most viewed.

Elon's slightly ahead, but yeah, it's still like growing. It's like finding an audience.

Elon's slightly ahead, but yeah, it's still like growing. It's like finding an audience.

Well, give us your thoughts. You know, there's an all in Twitter handle and he's Chamath David Sachs. And I'm at Jason and Freeberg's at Freeberg. Just tell us who you think would be great. But, Sachs, I know you're super excited and want to give Biden his flowers. The Fed just cut rates 50 bips and the stock market is tearing it up right now.

Well, give us your thoughts. You know, there's an all in Twitter handle and he's Chamath David Sachs. And I'm at Jason and Freeberg's at Freeberg. Just tell us who you think would be great. But, Sachs, I know you're super excited and want to give Biden his flowers. The Fed just cut rates 50 bips and the stock market is tearing it up right now.

On Wednesday, Fed cut interest rates by a half a percentage point. Taking them down off of a 23-year high. We've been talking about this, God, for two years here on this podcast. First rate cut since March of 2020, which is about when we started this podcast. Jay Powell basically said the Fed thinks inflation is coming down to around 2% nicely.

On Wednesday, Fed cut interest rates by a half a percentage point. Taking them down off of a 23-year high. We've been talking about this, God, for two years here on this podcast. First rate cut since March of 2020, which is about when we started this podcast. Jay Powell basically said the Fed thinks inflation is coming down to around 2% nicely.

And they don't want the job market to soften any further than it already has. He also mentioned immigration has helped soften the market, the labor market as well, obviously, with all those new people looking for jobs. So in the last two months, July and August, CPI has been at a two handle. We talked about that 2.9% in July, 2.5% in August. Here's the CPI over the last decade.

And they don't want the job market to soften any further than it already has. He also mentioned immigration has helped soften the market, the labor market as well, obviously, with all those new people looking for jobs. So in the last two months, July and August, CPI has been at a two handle. We talked about that 2.9% in July, 2.5% in August. Here's the CPI over the last decade.

Obviously, massive boom in interest that you see there from 2021 to 2023. Many obviously think we're going to have more rate cuts, probably 25 every meeting for a little bit. And Dow's already at an all-time high, surged 300 points on the news. Here's some interesting data about the 50 basis point kickoff cuts. So this is where it gets interesting, Chamath.

Obviously, massive boom in interest that you see there from 2021 to 2023. Many obviously think we're going to have more rate cuts, probably 25 every meeting for a little bit. And Dow's already at an all-time high, surged 300 points on the news. Here's some interesting data about the 50 basis point kickoff cuts. So this is where it gets interesting, Chamath.

Fed only started publicizing their interest rate changes in 1994. Since 94, Fed has initiated a cutting cycle six times. Here's the chart. Take a good look at that. 95, 98, 2019, they started with 25 bps. 01 and 07, after the great financial crisis, they started with a 50 bp cut. So obviously, there was an emergency 50-bip cut in March of 2020 when COVID hit. 01, 07, 2020, very severe situations.

Fed only started publicizing their interest rate changes in 1994. Since 94, Fed has initiated a cutting cycle six times. Here's the chart. Take a good look at that. 95, 98, 2019, they started with 25 bps. 01 and 07, after the great financial crisis, they started with a 50 bp cut. So obviously, there was an emergency 50-bip cut in March of 2020 when COVID hit. 01, 07, 2020, very severe situations.

And what happened in the markets is what I want to discuss with both of you today. In 2001, market fell 31% in the two years after that rate cut. In 2007, market fell 26% after two years. So And 2020, despite all the fears, market ripped 44% over two years. What's the more likely scenario, Chamath? Is this similar to the dot-com great financial crisis or similar to 2020?

And what happened in the markets is what I want to discuss with both of you today. In 2001, market fell 31% in the two years after that rate cut. In 2007, market fell 26% after two years. So And 2020, despite all the fears, market ripped 44% over two years. What's the more likely scenario, Chamath? Is this similar to the dot-com great financial crisis or similar to 2020?

Sax, any thoughts here? Just balls and strikes?

Sax, any thoughts here? Just balls and strikes?