Charlie McElligott

speaker
507 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2025 last heard Jul 2025

Charlie McElligott’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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The um
You know, I think the message I'm trying to remember the last time I was with you guys, but probably the message that I was communicating at that time was the the fixation and kind of the dooming
with the left tail scenarios.
Yeah.
And um s as so often is the case, when people are not incentivized to see the world burn, which might be debatable to some.
Sure.
Um, but and you start seeing
Especially with regard to, you know, negotiating tactics and things like that, where you start getting that not quite as bad as feared scenario.
Oftentimes there's an impact, certainly with the mechanical stuff that we so often talk about, and you really underprice the less bad outcome.
And there's a mechanical impact, there's a lot of you know vol distribution stuff, and it creates second-order impact, second order flows.
I think the most
fascinating two points that I would say outside of the, you know, the the mechanical flows that we talk about and and the volatility component of this is is is two things.
I think back to twenty twenty two.
Um, where we had our first kind of inflation driven macro bear case, right?
We just started the tightening cycle.
I think there was nine or ten months in a row of inflation upside surprises with CPI.
And um, you know, the macro bear case for equities at that point was this earnings recession.
We're due to this price shock.
It was going to impact consumption, top line sales go lower and you know, so so on and so forth.
What ended up happening is ironically, because of the health of the consumer.
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