Charlie McElligott
speaker
507 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Mar 2025
last heard Jul 2025
Charlie McElligott’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
and tight, tight, tight employment with wages at forty year highs, you ended up actually getting a dynamic where the corporate world operates on aggregate consumption.
They they operate in a nominal GDP world.
And that inflation, perversely, for the bears, was the earnings catalyst.
And all those folks got stopped out in twenty twenty three.
There is an element of that still to this day right now as it relates to earnings.
Um even be even though like nominal GDP is is in a different place to a certain extent, still kind of five percent ish.
Um
But the other point too is that as it relates to the CapEx spending uncertainty story, right?
If you know corporates don't know what they're supposed to do with their cash because of the, you know, the the kind of range of outcomes with regards to where, you know, where they where these, you know, uh tariffs are gonna end up, um, the sand in the gears of the global economy.
Well, the thought was, of course, you know, if corporates don't know what to be spending on.
And um consumers are feeling that impact as well.
You're gonna get this eventual drag with regards to consumption, you're gonna have corporates in a bad place.
You either lose the top line sales because the consumers are paying through the roof, or you have to absorb those costs and your margins go lower.
Um but what corporates have instead done have taken authorized buybacks all time highs.
So we're not spending on, you know, R and D, we're not spending on hiring or building that new plant.
We're gonna buy back more stock than ever before year to date.
And that, you know, if you look at corporate buyback flows as a source of demand for equities over the past 10, 15 year period, it's a magnitudes, six, seven, eight times magnitudes largest source of demand.
So you've had these two kind of unintuitive dynamics in the market that have actually kept us higher on top of all those kind of vol scaling things that we like to talk about.
I I think I think selling vol uh has become a new form of fixed income in a world where bonds are no longer a risk free asset.
Now that, you know, can go wrong so many ways.
Showing 21–40 of 507 · page 2 of 26
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