Chris Giles
speaker
229 appearances
10 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2011
last heard Jan 2015
Chris Giles’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
You would expect, over the total period, inflation to be zero.
But actually, that way of doing it doesn't give zero.
It gives a positive number always because it's biased upwards.
Well, there's some really good news because our main living standard measure, when we look at how much incomes, household incomes have risen, has always been deflated or adjusted for inflation using the RPI.
And so when we look back and say, oh, well, actually, since 2002, incomes haven't grown very much.
Well, they've actually grown considerably more than we thought by half a percentage point a year and even more recently.
So the good news is that actually life has got better recently.
although we probably banked all that, so it doesn't feel great just to be told it after the fact.
You as Treasurer do have to ask quite a lot of questions of yourselves, because you did put in some big austerity measures, and that was certainly going to slow the
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But lots of other things have been happening too.
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The Eurozone, which we all trade with, has been having a terrible time.
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And that's our biggest trading partner.
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And then lots of other things happened in the rest of the world.
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So commodity prices rose, oil prices rose.
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All these things we didn't expect, we didn't know were going to happen.
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And so I don't think, I think very strongly you cannot say it was your fault.
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It might have been your fault, but there is no firm evidence to say it was your fault.
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It's a great experiment, but actually finding the answer is very, very difficult, because what you have to do is you have to split out the effect on the economy of the austerity versus the effect of everything else that hits these economies, and that's not easy.
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And one of the things that we know about the Eurozone and the UK compared with the US is that the productivity performance of these two economies has been really very different over the crisis and over the subsequent period.
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So that in the Eurozone, what we know is that the output for each worker hasn't been rising, in fact, has been falling.
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