Colleen Keller
speaker
51 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Mar 2014
last heard May 2014
Colleen Keller’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Sadly.
My name is Colleen Keller.
I'm a senior analyst at Metron Incorporated, which is a consulting firm that has expertise in search theory.
You take that area and you grid it.
You divide it into cells, depending on how fine-grained you want to get.
And then you run your scenarios, and your scenarios might say it flew this way, it flew this way.
Each of those scenarios has a terminus of where the airplane might have ended up.
And those areas get probability based on how much you weighted that scenario.
So at that point, everybody was throwing up their hands, like, what do we do next?
So they came back to us one last time and they said, well, we have enough money to do this once again, but this is probably the last chance.
Metron did the analysis and factored in all the searches they'd done to date.
Well, I wish I could show you the picture because it's really striking.
The original probability map showed heavy probability along the intended flight path of the airplane from the last known point to the very edge of the circle.
But they searched along that area.
It basically just took a big cutout of the hot areas and made them completely cold.
When we went back and said, no, those searches maybe weren't effective at all because there was no target to hear,
And they had actually not tried to search that area again because they figured they'd searched it very well in the first 30 days.
So all of a sudden it was like, well, we've got to go back and hit that area again.
It still was a minor miracle that we found it.
I mean, we don't want to take full credit for it.
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