Commodore Steve Jermy

speaker

516 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 20 Jul

Commodore Steve Jermy’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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The Tucker Carlson Show · WAR UPDATE: Military Insider Gives Terrifying Prediction & Reveals How Unprepared America Truly Is · 20 Jul 2026 podcast

Japan had a very big aura reserve, but places like Taiwan, 90% of the

semiconductors are made in Taiwan.

So places like Taiwan were much more vulnerable.

So I suspect one of the reasons China may have done that is not just for tactical reasons, but also for thinking about their export markets, because reduction in oil in these other places could have a significant impact.

I don't think anybody really knows

But one of the other things to think about is that, sorry, I'll just finish.

I think I would be surprised if we were not seeing consequences of this in August.

And I've certainly had some very good analysts who I follow.

talking about September as well.

I'm a great fan of an American geophysicist called Art Berman, who's an exceptional analyst.

The other thing, though, of course, is that even when the Straits of Hormuz open,

then there is a lag.

There's a lag on actually the whole system getting going again.

It's a bit like sort of closing off your plumbing in your pipes at home and then expect it to function perfectly.

Now, one of the interesting things is that when the, I can't remember what the ship's name was, a container ship blocked the Suez Canal.

And for every one day that that container ship blocked the Suez Canal, there's a very good merchant navy analyst called Sam McCogliano who said it was about six days for the whole logistics system to recover.

So even if it's three days, you could be talking for, you know, as a minimum, it would be the amount of time that the straits have been closed it will take to recover.

but it could be twice that or it could be three times that so i'm expecting and forecasting that we'll be looking at a significant recession starting in the autumn and that could tip into recession in the new year but where that recession will play in the globe is an open question i mean the country that's most insulated from it surprise surprise is russia you know russia's an autarkic nation

It well understands the consequences of what's going on, I think.

Although Putin's first degree is in law, his postgraduate work was in resource economics.

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