Dan Hodges

They may not like it, but they understand that if they do want Andy Burnham to see off Nigel Farage, there are certain things Andy Burnham is going to have to do and say that maybe they wouldn't normally feel that comfortable with.

And certainly they weren't going to let Keir Starmer get away with it when Keir Starmer had a popularity of minus 44.

If Andy Burnham can retain any sort of national popularity and can demonstrate any sort of bounce in the polls at the moment and can in any way narrow the gap between Labour and reform, then he will get a bit of breathing space from his party.

If he messes it up, they'll take his head off.

But in the short term...

they'll give him in the short term, they'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

And any decision... Yeah, but as I said, that's what having the breathing space is.

He will be given the opportunity initially, if he wants to take it, to deal with some, to take some difficult decisions.

And in the short term, Labour MPs will suck it up and see how it works out.

Now,

Obviously, if subsequently, you know, if we're sitting here in 12 months time and Andy Burnham is at minus 44, you know, personal rating in the polls and Nigel Farage is on 40%, we're going to be having the conversation about who replaces Andy Burnham.

But the idea that, you know, Labour MPs are going to pounce on him immediately and say, right, you've got to do this, you've got to do that.

If he does secure the Labour leadership, he will have a honeymoon period.

It won't be a long one, but he will.

Trust me on one thing.

Andy Burnham has been around politics long enough to know the difference between mayor of Manchester and being prime minister of the United Kingdom.

No, I don't think he'll become Keir Starmer.

If Andy Burnham fails, he'll become even less popular than Keir Starmer.

But that failure is not currently preordained.