Daniel Kokotajlo

speaker

687 appearances 4 recordings 4 series first heard Apr 2025 last heard 19 Jun

Daniel Kokotajlo’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.

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Probably 50% by late 2028.

Okay.

That's soon.

Yeah, that's like a little bit later than Anthropic expects, I think.

Things take longer than you plan for, you know?

So we're not going to see an intelligence explosion this year in the scenario that happens next year.

That's close.

So that's nice.

Yeah, or to put it another way, just fully automating the AI research process, causing AI research to happen even faster than it currently happens.

And it's currently happening at a very fast rate compared to many other technologies.

But yeah, I would say the coding agents are just going to get better and better.

And that maybe a year from now, maybe two years from now, they will be good enough that you can sort of say they've automated coding fully.

They haven't fully automated coding yet, but maybe in a year or two, they'll have fully automated coding.

At which point, the bottleneck,

will be research taste and management and all the other aspects of the AI research process besides the actual coding.

And then the companies are going to turn towards resolving those bottlenecks and teaching the AIs to do those skills as well.

And that's going to take some time, but it's going to go by faster than you might think when all the coding has been automated.

Once they've finished doing those things, they won't have super intelligence immediately.

You know, the first AI system that can do the complete AI research process probably won't be able to do various other things.

But once they've fully automated the research process, things will probably go faster and faster.

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