Darius Dale

speaker

259 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 30 Jul

Darius Dale’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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The Pomp Podcast · The Fed's Latest Move Just Changed Everything | Darius Dale · 30 Jul 2026 podcast

And here's why.

by injecting volatility into the interest rate curve, particularly on the short end of the interest rate curve, by not over-communicating, which is what Kevin Warsh is seeking to do, by injecting that volatility, you ultimately allow the financial markets to price in, the better price in, more accurately price in, changes in the R star, which is the real policy rate, or changes in the neutral rate,

uh, better as opposed to just the, for the, as opposed to what the markets have previously been doing, which is anchoring on previous Fed forward guidance.

And so by allowing the markets to price in changes, real time changes to the R star and the neutral rate, you ultimately create an economy that doesn't deviate too far in one direction or the other.

That is a massive, important change from a sociological and economic standpoint that ultimately shrinks the distribution of probable outcomes.

It reduces the probability of having significant left-tail events like the global financial crisis.

It reduces the probability of having significant right-tail events like what we saw in early 2021.

You're just basically compressing the range of probable outcomes, which is actually better for the economy long-term because ultimately businesses can plan better, households can plan better.

We ultimately can get to a much better sequence of outcomes.

Look, I mean, you have to go back to Greenspan, right?

Greenspan is the last time we saw, you know, significant, you know, capital deepening in the economy that led to as meaningful productivity boom.

We had 150 basis point, you know, trend acceleration and productivity growth from the mid 90s to the mid 2000s.

And so, you know, that was obviously part of the part of that was the function of the diffusion of Internet technology, technology throughout the economy.

But it wasn't just that.

It was other things as well.

And so

you know, anchoring on that legacy, you know, yes, the answer to your question is, yeah, it's been a while since we've had a Fed chair that understands that the sequence of outcomes is just as important, if not more important than the destination.

And here's why.

I just said our star has been gravitating higher.

Neutral rate has been gravitating higher according to our market implied estimate of the neutral rate.

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