Darius Dale

speaker

259 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 30 Jul

Darius Dale’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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The Pomp Podcast · The Fed's Latest Move Just Changed Everything | Darius Dale · 30 Jul 2026 podcast

It's our, we built a model that essentially tries to extract from various market pricing what the market's estimate of neutral is.

And it's basically gone up by about two rate hikes in the last couple of months.

And so what that ultimately means is the market is signaling to the Fed.

The market is telling the Fed, hey, we are running out of money at the margins.

And so in order for you to attract this increasingly limited supply of capital, Mr. Treasury market, you need to raise your interest rate.

You need to raise the ex ante return on this security.

Otherwise, I'm going to go buy a piece of NVIDIA hyperscaler debt or I'm going to go buy this stock that's going up 10x what a fixed income return would be.

And so that's the whole concept of our star and neutral.

That's the market's ability.

That's the market's communication mechanism, either through our star neutral or interest rates or inflation expectations, rather.

That's the way the market communicates to the Fed to tell them to do stuff.

And so the market is telling the Fed that, hey, if you want, if the Treasury Department wants more of my money, you need to make the interest rate higher because I have alternate uses for this capital and or the supply of capital is dwindling at the margins.

Fun fact.

If you look at the growth rate of global savings on a trailing 10-year basis, it's about 55%.

That's one of the lowest readings in the history of the time series.

The long-run mean of the trailing 10-year percentage change in global savings is about 90%.

Right now, we are currently at 55%.

So we've had a tremendous deceleration in the growth rate of global savings.

At the same time, we're having a tremendous acceleration in the demand for capital.

Obviously, we have an AI CapEx bubble.

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