David Dunn

Given the deal they were trying to push on Iran, that's probably a good thing for Ukraine.

The Europeans are now stepping in and actually responding to Russian requests to be the mediators.

And I think, obviously, the Europeans have much more of a concern of the wider European security impact of any deal.

And therefore, that's a good thing.

So there is a change in confidence on Ukraine, a willingness on Russia to seek other ways of dealing with this.

A removal of the American pressure on Ukraine to make concessions and the Europeans stepping up and being involved in a way that takes the directions and the negotiations in a different direction.

So a lot of things are happening there in a different way and a more positive outcome for Zelensky than was previously the case over the last three or four years.

We always believe that the reason the United States was in Europe was that there was some sort of symbiosis going on.

Europe was happy to have them as some sort of a shield.

But equally, Europe was useful to the American greater global strategy.

Has that changed or is it just that Trump has decided, well, maybe he doesn't even understand symbiosis?

Yeah, I mean, the American military presence in Europe is central to their policy of not just European security, but actually is a staging post for operations in Africa.

Africa is based in Germany.

The whole Middle East policy relies on the base network throughout Europe.

But as a broader point I'd like to make is that actually the whole basis of NATO and the transatlantic relationship more broadly is,

was based on the idea that there was one political community, the community of like-minded, liberal, democratic, developed states who actually had a sense of community, and therefore the defense of that community was about there being a unified sense of identity.

And therefore, in a sense, the American military commitment to Europe was deemed to be credible by that virtue of there being that single notion of identity.

Sorry to get politically sciencey on you here.

But the point under Trump administration is that actually they see themselves as America alone, as America first, and actually reject the idea that Europe is worth defending because they are part of that same community.

because they see Europeans as feckless, anti-religious, overly liberal free riders on the American taxpayer.