David Shor

Right. And I'll say, if you look at the UK election last year, you know, the Labour Party did a lot better, you know, because the incumbent party was unpopular. But I think what's interesting is that if you look at it by age, the Conservatives actually increased their vote share among 18 to 24 year old voters, I think by two or 3%, even though they did eight or 9% worse overall. And so I do think,

Right. And I'll say, if you look at the UK election last year, you know, the Labour Party did a lot better, you know, because the incumbent party was unpopular. But I think what's interesting is that if you look at it by age, the Conservatives actually increased their vote share among 18 to 24 year old voters, I think by two or 3%, even though they did eight or 9% worse overall. And so I do think,

It's not just inflation. It's not just backlash to the incumbent governments, though I'm sure that's part of the story too.

It's not just inflation. It's not just backlash to the incumbent governments, though I'm sure that's part of the story too.

You know, I do want to just stress that this seems to be a global phenomena. And, you know, I don't want to over-center the particular things the Democratic Party has done rather than, you know, the broader cultural... Peterson and Tate are global figures. No, exactly.

You know, I do want to just stress that this seems to be a global phenomena. And, you know, I don't want to over-center the particular things the Democratic Party has done rather than, you know, the broader cultural... Peterson and Tate are global figures. No, exactly.

You know, what I'll say is I just think that, you know, we're in the midst of a big cultural change that I think that people are really underestimating. You know, if you look at Zoomers, there's just a lot of really interesting ways that they're very different in the data. They're much more likely than previous generations to say that making money is extremely important to them.

You know, what I'll say is I just think that, you know, we're in the midst of a big cultural change that I think that people are really underestimating. You know, if you look at Zoomers, there's just a lot of really interesting ways that they're very different in the data. They're much more likely than previous generations to say that making money is extremely important to them.

They are a lot more, if you look at their psychographic data, they have a lot higher levels of psychometric neuroticism and anxiety than the people before them. If I was going to speculate, I think that phones and social media have a lot to do with this. How that translates into partisan politics depends on what the parties do, but I think it's a big shift.

They are a lot more, if you look at their psychographic data, they have a lot higher levels of psychometric neuroticism and anxiety than the people before them. If I was going to speculate, I think that phones and social media have a lot to do with this. How that translates into partisan politics depends on what the parties do, but I think it's a big shift.

Yeah, I agree with that entirely. Online communities are way more gender segregated than offline communities are. And so in that respect, it should be unsurprising that suddenly shifting a bunch of young people's social worlds to be entirely online all at once caused the political situation to change.

Yeah, I agree with that entirely. Online communities are way more gender segregated than offline communities are. And so in that respect, it should be unsurprising that suddenly shifting a bunch of young people's social worlds to be entirely online all at once caused the political situation to change.

You know, I have to admit, I was one of those liberals four years ago, and it seems like I was wrong. You know, the future has a way of surprising us. You know, the flip side of this is that Democrats made a bunch of gains among old voters, and I'm sure that they'll be happy that they did two years from now in the midterms.

You know, I have to admit, I was one of those liberals four years ago, and it seems like I was wrong. You know, the future has a way of surprising us. You know, the flip side of this is that Democrats made a bunch of gains among old voters, and I'm sure that they'll be happy that they did two years from now in the midterms.

But if we don't do anything about this, then this problem could become very bad. And so now I'm just going to move over to a little less descriptive and just kind of talking about how this happened. So right here I have this slide. This is very simple. This is just showing exit poll favorability for the Democratic and Republican presidential candidate in 2020 and 2024.

But if we don't do anything about this, then this problem could become very bad. And so now I'm just going to move over to a little less descriptive and just kind of talking about how this happened. So right here I have this slide. This is very simple. This is just showing exit poll favorability for the Democratic and Republican presidential candidate in 2020 and 2024.

And, you know, I think it's just really important to ground any discussion of the election with the simple fact that Donald Trump was just as unpopular on Election Day last year as he was in 2020 and maybe even a little bit more unpopular. But what changed is that Biden had a net favorability rating of plus six and Harris had a net favorability rating of minus six.

And, you know, I think it's just really important to ground any discussion of the election with the simple fact that Donald Trump was just as unpopular on Election Day last year as he was in 2020 and maybe even a little bit more unpopular. But what changed is that Biden had a net favorability rating of plus six and Harris had a net favorability rating of minus six.

And that's why we see this chart. I think the best explanation for why Kamala Harris was unpopular is in this next slide, which is just that... The Biden administration was extremely unpopular for most of its term. You know, they saw their approval fall off a cliff after Afghanistan, and then it dropped further as inflation and immigration and the budget fights all happened in the fall.

And that's why we see this chart. I think the best explanation for why Kamala Harris was unpopular is in this next slide, which is just that... The Biden administration was extremely unpopular for most of its term. You know, they saw their approval fall off a cliff after Afghanistan, and then it dropped further as inflation and immigration and the budget fights all happened in the fall.