Dean W. Ball

speaker

545 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Nov 2024 last heard Nov 2024

Dean W. Ball’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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"The Cognitive Revolution" · AGI Lab Transparency Requirements & Whistleblower Protections, with Dean W. Ball & Daniel Kokotajlo · 12 Nov 2024 podcast

My previous intuition was like, yeah, probably short timelines, but my hunch here is like I don't trust my hunch enough to think that should be guiding public policy decisions.

And I now feel differently.

My hunch is now sufficiently strong that I think it's okay, we should probably be making public policy decisions based on this.

And yeah, I mean, to me, between computer use from Anthropic and OpenAI's 01, I think you can just see the future.

I think you can just start to see it take shape.

An interesting empirical observation I have about computer use is that the first thing I tried to use it to do was use my laptop with I have the latest version of Mac.

And

That comes with a feature called iPhone screen mirroring, where you can have your iPhone UI as a window on the Mac.

And Anthropic said in their blog post that they trained this thing on desktop UIs.

And so my question was like, huh, I wonder how it I wonder how it handles an iPhone user interface.

I wonder if it will be able to figure that out at all.

And it did.

It totally did.

So that makes me think I uh there's somet I mean, you know, it wasn't great.

It still is flawed, but just yeah, the fact that it even figured it is is an interesting observation.

And so it's like to me, the things that we see in front of us right now will get better.

I don't think you need like actually that much more.

I think a lot making that stuff better is like fundamentally probably more of an engineering problem and a geopolitical problem than it is a science problem at this point.

And

what will happen is that they'll get better and they'll also get cheaper and faster and we'll parallelize them.

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