Dr. Richard Moulange
speaker
1,784 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Mar 2026
last heard 31 Mar
Dr. Richard Moulange’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Mar 2026 with 1.
Appearances
You shouldn't just take sort of my word for it.
I'm one person.
I really would think about...
bringing together lots of experts and averaging their view.
And this is exactly something that the Forecasting Research Institute did last year, where they brought together a group of subject matter experts and biosecurity and AI experts.
And they came out with a number sort of around 1% to 2%.
It was up on what it otherwise would have been because of AI.
I think the probability could go up a lot in the next few years.
I think a lot of this is tied to...
your classic AI, HEI, ASI, take your acronym of choice timelines, because the ability to understand and manipulate viral biology could markedly increase in the next few years.
Remember, we're just at the cusp.
We've just made one of the first viable genome scale new organisms.
Where do we go from there?
We've only had experimentally accurate structural prediction for a few years.
People will look back on this and go, oh, the time when they only had alpha fold, that only solved one little bit of biology because they hadn't had all these other tools that had solved all these other things that used to take years or decades to complete.
And now you can do it in the click of a button.
It's going to go up a lot, I think.
No, I think that comes under viral pandemic.
Your right to raise that as a particular threat model, because it's one that's often discussed, I think, a little more in some of these communities that think about AI a lot.
I think there's some nuance here that we need.
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