Dr Shane Oliver

speaker

94 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 28 Jul

Dr Shane Oliver’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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FEAR & GREED | Business News · Q+A: Is the sharemarket about to get a reality check? · 28 Jul 2026 podcast

Well, there it gets a bit more messy.

So the expectation is that earnings will rebound.

And that expectation was sort of partly engendered by good results back in February.

So the market consensus after three years of falling profits, three financial years of falling profits, is anticipating a rise through this financial year and through next year of about 12%.

Now, a big chunk of that is coming from the big miners and energy companies, resources, stocks.

Whereas if you look beneath the surface, it's not so good.

You're looking at numbers around 4% or 5%.

I think if you exclude the banks, it's around 2% or 3%.

So the market, I guess, or the consensus is that earnings will see a rebound, but it's still fairly subdued if you look beneath the surface.

And a lot of it has to do with swings in commodity prices.

And of course, recently, we've seen increasing angst because we've seen three rate hikes in a row in Australia, possibility of another one, depending on what the CPI shows.

And that, of course, is slowing down the economy.

And on top of that, we've got low levels of consumer confidence.

Business confidence is a little bit depressed.

As you said, the on again, off again, PEG talks in the Middle East won't help.

This might give my age away.

It reminds me of the regular reports.

We got through the Vietnam War.

It was constant.

Peace talks happening in Paris, and then they weren't happening.

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