Dr Shane Oliver

speaker

94 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 28 Jul

Dr Shane Oliver’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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FEAR & GREED | Business News · Q+A: Is the sharemarket about to get a reality check? · 28 Jul 2026 podcast

It went on for years and years and years.

Likewise, my wife is Sri Lankan, and I constantly remember the peace talks regarding the battle in Sri Lanka.

So this could drag on indefinitely.

uh trouble with those the difference with those conflicts of course is that they didn't affect world oil prices and the global economy to the same degree whereas this time around you know there's a lot riding on those peace talks eventually uh leading to some success and so far they haven't so that's a messy uh situation there so i think the market's sort of

In some ways, PEs have come down from where they were.

I think we were around 20, 22, 23 times.

We've come down a little bit to around 18, 19 times on the Ford PE.

That's good.

But there's still a bit of vulnerability there if the RBA has to keep raising rates and if bond yields keep rising beyond 5%.

It does mean that it's all, I mean, there's all sorts of angles regarding these capital gains tax changes as they impact the share market, because don't think it was needed gearing and capital gains tax changes would impact the property market.

The initial view was the capital gains tax changes may not have much impact on the share market because of some treasury modelling released on budget night.

The problem is that that modelling was a cut and paste.

from the property market and only applied if you invest in a share market index or an ETF or something like that.

Whereas it gets a lot more complicated if you actually pick stocks.

You'll have a bunch that go up and some hopefully less that go down, but you won't get the benefit of indexing inflation for those that go down.

And therefore you can end up a lot worse compared to someone who just bought an ETF, depending on how your portfolio goes.

So that's created

I think, confusion for investors.

And in any case, I think the general view is that we will pay more in the way of capital gains tax.

So that has the impact of biasing investors more towards higher income paying stocks.

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