Dylan Patel
speaker
3,025 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2025
last heard 15 Jul
Dylan Patel’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
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And so I think there's a whole lot more CapEx that can come without it being necessarily like economically motivated day one.
I'm also saying like economically motivated CapEx can only grow like so much, but there's so much other like, like, like where it's not clear from, you know, if you have a spreadsheet, you know, and you're basing it on real business that you should actually spend this much, but people will because they believe, I believe, I think you believe like infra, you know, people believe that this will be, you'll get profit out of it, but there's no like 100% certain, like, you know, way to argue it.
I think that's the biggest thing, right?
Is when we look at orders from Google and from Amazon, right?
Especially their, and Meta, their custom silicon is, not Microsoft, their custom silicon kind of sucks.
But the other three, they're really upping their orders massively over the last year.
You know, Amazon is making millions of Tranium.
Google's making millions of TPUs.
TPUs clearly are like 100% utilized, right?
Yeah.
Trinium's not there, but I think Amazon will figure out how to do that, and Anthropic will.
So I think that's the biggest threat to NVIDIA, is that people figure out how to use custom silicon more broadly.
And this sort of becomes this sort of like, if AI is concentrated, then custom silicon will do better.
And that's not even talking about OpenAI's silicon team and stuff, right?
If AI is really concentrated, then they'll do better.
custom silicon, but if it gets dispersed broadly because there's all these open source models from China, and there's all these open source software libraries from, you know, NVIDIA in China, and it makes the deployment costs like rock bottom, then potentially... Hear me out here.
I absolutely think so.
I think Google's even discussing it internally.
I think it would require a big reorg of culture and a big reorg of how Google Cloud works and how the TPU team works and how the Jack software team and XLA software teams work.
I totally think they could.
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