Ed Dowd
speaker
80 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2024
last heard Dec 2024
Ed Dowd’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Then they hired government workers like we've never seen before in September alone, who I think was like 950,000 government jobs right before the election. So Trump's policies are going to reverse all this. And so the recession will be revealed. There are already revisions going on, major revisions starting to happen. And I'm sure we're going to see more revisions coming forward.
And the true state of unemployment is way higher than stated, 4.5%, 5%, whatever it is today, more like 10% to 15%.
Smoke and mirrors and actual government spending and deficit spending to kind of juice the economy and let it limp along a little more. But Trump is going to Stop the immigration. So that's short-term juice that disappears. He's going to cut government spending. So his policies initially will be contractionary, but needed to be done because the government, it's called fiscal dominance.
The government was overwhelming the private sector. And we can't have a middle, there's no middle class in that. So Trump's plan is to reestablish the middle class. The middle class did well under him. Their per capita GDP income rose up until 2020. 2020 was a disaster, but every year up until then, it was up. Since Biden got in there, it's come way down. Obviously, inflation has helped with that.
And the rich, the very rich, the 0.1%, under Trump, their percent of financial wealth declined. Under Biden-Harris, it went up to all-time highs of 15%. So 0.1% of the wealthy own 15% of the financial assets in the U.S.
Yeah, so his Treasury Secretary that he just nominated, Scott Besson, has been trying to get the message out. It's the 3-3-3 plan, 3% growth, 3%. I forget, but it's the 3-3-3 plan. And it's a good plan. And he also has been communicating that the cannon has been spiked by the Biden administration, both at the Treasury level and the government spending level, the deficit spending.
So he's messaging it. We need Trump to start messaging it. Trump needs to stay away from the stock market as an indication of how he's doing, because the stock market is at levels of valuation we haven't seen in quite a long time. Warren Buffett, about a year and a half ago, started accumulating cash, and he has the largest cash pile he's ever had, $350 billion.
He is getting out of stocks, and he has been. He owns 4% of the Treasury bill market, more than the Federal Reserve. He's been here before. He's waiting patiently, and he's not looking for a 10%, 20% correction. He's looking for a lot more. Now, I was more bearish on what was going to happen if Harris had gotten in there.
Under Trump, I think we got a shot of this drawdown coming in the stock market and financial assets being not as deep as it could have been. And then, you know, hopefully if he gets all his policies implemented, his deregulation, his tax cuts for the middle class, his energy policies, his trade policies, we'll see something like we saw in the 1980s where Ronald Reagan
got handed a recession in 81 and 82. By the time his reelection came around, the economy was booming. So that's the model.
Yeah, and let's also not forget this. The fourth branch of government, the bureaucratic state, the administrative state, the deep state, whatever you want to call it, did not get thrown out of office on November 5th. They're still there. They're like blood-soaked ticks. And they're going to do everything they can to protect their jobs.
And the messaging from the Trump administration, Elon Musk and the VAC, is we're going to cut jobs. So these people are going to do everything they can to thwart Donald Trump and his administration. This is existential for them. So this is not going to be as easy as we think. There's a lot of mechanisms they can use to thwart him. You know, let's say he writes an executive order around day one.
It'll be challenged in the D.C. Circuit Court, and then they'll have to go to the Supreme Court, as opposed to Biden does an executive order. No one challenges him in any courts. So this is part of the problem we have. It's going to be a battle. It's going to be a communication effort, a PR effort.
And Trump needs to get out in front of the economy before the mainstream media does and call it before it happens.
I'm not sure the inner specifics of how it's going to work. What I do know is they're already, before Trump gets in there, trying to pre-spend so that he can't cut the spending before, you know, the end of 25. Trying to front load the budget and then, you know, make it into law so that he can't start cutting spending until after the fiscal year end in 95. Or 25, sorry, 95. Yeah.
Well, I was very nervous about the Treasury Secretary. I like Scott Fesson. I like what he's talking about. I want to put people at ease. He did work for George Soros, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything because you have to understand how his operation works. He has Soros fund investment, and then he has the Open Society, which is his political arm.
The fund investment is about making money. You could care less whether you're one horn, one eye, purple people eating monster. If you make money, you're in. And there were plenty of people I'd known over the years who had nothing like George Soros' political views, but yet worked there because it was a good job and paid well.
as Scott Besant left because of his political disorientation with Soros and had enough FU money that he could go out on his own. So I don't think people, don't label this guy as a Soros toady. He's saying all the right things. The capital markets and people on Wall Street like him. And there were other appointees that were floated that were were making me very nervous.
So I'm happy about that because if we don't get the treasury right and the dollar right and the economy right, it's chaos. So I'm glad about that. Obviously, I'm happy with Bobby Kennedy and Jay and others. There are some I don't like, but that's okay. I'm not going to get my laundry list of everybody.
No, January, but the disability numbers come out Friday. Gotcha, gotcha. Look, what I think might happen, this is game theory, but if I'm a bureaucrat in the Bureau of Labor Statistics and I'm worried about my job, I'd start reporting truthful numbers now under the Biden administration. That's my hope.
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