Ege Erdil

And scaling up the economy is also necessary.

On its own, it's not sufficient.

And then you can ask the question, what is the relative importance of each?

It's just much more efficient for AI to operate in our economy and benefit from the existing supply chains and existing markets rather than set up shop on some island somewhere and do its own thing.

So I think one issue here is that I think people are doing this very kind of partial equilibrium analysis or something where they're thinking about just this raw abilities of AI systems in a world where AI systems are kind of dominant and human civilization has done very little in

in terms of integrating itself and the AIs integrating itself into the human world, maybe making, insofar as it's poor at communicating and coordinating with AIs, addressing those deficiencies and improving that, insofar as that's posing a risk or creating inefficiencies because it's unable to benefit from coordinating and trading, then it should have this enormous incentive to address that.

Insofar as there is a lot of value to be gained from

dominating and taking over humans, like what you might get is a more negotiated settlement.

If that's indeed the case, then a war would just be inefficient.

And so you would want to negotiate some settlement that results in some outcomes that are mutually beneficial.

I think one mistake that I feel people make is they have this very naive analysis of what creates conflict.

I think Matthew has written a bit about this, a colleague of ours.

where they say, you know, there's misalignment.

And so that then creates conflict.

But that's actually not what the literature on what causes conflict says creates conflict.

It's not just misalignment.

It's also other issues, like not being able, like...

being having bad understanding of the relative strengths of your armies versus theirs, or maybe having these very strong commitments that you think some grounds are secret and so you're not willing to do any trade in order to give up some of that in order to gain something else.

And so then you have to posit some additional things other than just the base value misalignment part.

But insofar as it's more peaceful, then I think it's much less of a thing to worry about.