Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
Some of this is going to sound kind of doomerish, but I'm just saying what I think will happen.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
It's not meant to be doomerish or anything else.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
This is what I think will happen.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
Corporations that are purely AI and robotics will vastly outperform any corporations that have people in the loop.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
So you can think of, say, like computer used to be a job that humans had.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
You would go and get a job as a computer where you would do calculations.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
And they'd have like entire skyscrapers full of humans, like 20, 30 floors of humans just doing calculations.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
Now that entire skyscraper of humans doing calculations can be replaced by a laptop with a spreadsheet.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
That spreadsheet can do vastly more calculations than an entire building full of human computers.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
So then you think about, OK, well, what if only some of the cells in your spreadsheet were calculated by humans?
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
Actually, that would be much worse than if all of the cells in your spreadsheet were calculated by the computer.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
And so really what will happen is the pure AI, pure robotics,
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
corporations or collectives will far outperform any corporations that have humans in the loop.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
And this will happen very quickly.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
Well, there are really only three hard things for human robots.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
The real world intelligence, the hand, and scale manufacturing.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
So I haven't seen any even demo robots that have a great hand, like with all the degrees of freedom of a human hand.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
But Optimus will have that.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
Well, we had to design custom actuators, basically custom designed motors, gears, power electronics, controls, sensors.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
Everything had to be designed from physics first principles.