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14332 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

Originally, yeah, we were going to make Starship out of carbon fiber.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

And carbon fiber is pretty expensive.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

You know, you can generally, when you do volume production, you can get any given thing to start to approach its material cost.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

The problem with carbon fiber is that material cost is still very high.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

So it's about 50 times, particularly if you go for a high-strength specialized carbon fiber that can handle cryogenic oxygen, it's like, quote, roughly 50 times the cost of steel.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

And at least in theory, it would be lighter.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

People generally think of steel as being heavy and carbon fiber as being light.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

And for room temperature applications, you know, except more or less room temperature applications like a Formula One car, static aerostructure or any kind of aerostructure really is going to, you're going to probably be better off with carbon fiber.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

Now, the problem is that we were trying to make this enormous rocket out of carbon fiber, and our progress was extremely slow.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

Yes.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

At first glance, most people would think that the choice for making something light would be carbon fiber.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

Now, the thing is that when you make something very enormous out of carbon fiber, and then you try to have the carbon fiber be efficiently cured, meaning not room temperature cured, because sometimes you've got like 50 plies of

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

of carbon fiber.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

And carbon fiber is really carbon string and glue.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

And in order to have high strength, you need an autoclave.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

So something that's essentially a high pressure oven.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

And if you have something that's a gigantic, the oven's got to be bigger than the rocket.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

So we're trying to make the autoclave that's bigger than any autoclave that's ever existed.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

or do room temperature cure, which takes a long time and has issues.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

But the final issue is that we're just making very slow progress with carbon fiber.