Emil

whatever move will piss you off, will piss me off the most, tends to be the one that... I'm essentially calling it what other people refer to as the pain trade, meaning whatever is the most painful move for the most market participants tends to be the one that occurs and follows through.

And when you've got...

I don't know why I'm gesturing because nobody can see me.

That's fine.

Ed can see you.

When you've got a sharp decline like we had a few weeks back, I believe now like six weeks ago, when you've got a sharp decline like that and then a nice tradable bottom occurs on a lot of volume, meaning it's like a lot of people are coming in and there's some capitulation going, once that bottom is in, everybody who missed shorting

is now going, oh, now's my time to get short.

But then when it just keeps going higher, you're pulling out your hair because now you're stuck short and it's still going higher and you're missing out on that upside.

So it's a double-edged sword of just like, fuck, I wanted to participate in that downside that I missed.

And now that I'm getting into it, I'm missing all this upside.

That's been me multiple times.

And then when it goes on week two of bouncing, which it did, you go, okay, surely now it's probably going to pull back

again but then when it doesn't you're on week three we are currently on six weeks straight up so now I believe the move that will piss off the most people including myself is just sideways and up for the remainder of the summer I think that the longer basically the higher we go the higher we go is a very simple simplistic way of putting it it's frustrating it's setting everyone up for disaster though when the bottom falls out

Because there's actually, when you look at the actual numbers, as I do obsessively, it doesn't look good.

But then there's the smugness of, well, if it was so bad, why number go up?

And it's, everything's disconnected.

I guess it kind of feels foolish to say this as if it's new, but it feels like everything is disconnected from reality at this point.

Like every single part of it?

Boglehead over here.

I mean, I am fully in cash.