Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy.
Not quite. On Humor Me with Robert Smigel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guests, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.
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Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports, and giving you the real story behind the headlines.
And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And for more, follow TimboSlicelife12 and the TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. What's up, guys?
This is Clifford Taylor IV, and on my podcast, The Clifford Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff, like being an internet-famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker walks up to me, he goes, Hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.
What?! Time out.
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Chapter 2: What insights do Ben and Emil share about the current state of the markets?
way zoom in on the, you know, S and P 500 chart and be like, uh, I, I believe now's a good time to exit. And then today we're just like absolutely ripping on a Trump tweet about a potential, uh, potential Iran agreement or something.
Yeah. I think he does, which does not exist. Like it's just, it's just Axios. It's just, it's just Axios saying, yep, Yeah, the key thing here I think is that I'm trying to remember as a trader is there's an old idiom or axiom, whatever you want to, whatever the word is, the trend is your friend. And currently the trend is momentum. And everybody's got their...
Everybody's got their marching orders from institutions and hedge funds on down to retail traders, which is while the getting's good, you better eat because you can stand on the sidelines and scratch your head and wonder why it's going up. It's like that meme of the bell chart. You know, with the- No. Oh, with the really smart guy and the idiot.
Yes.
And then the kind of middle ground. And it's like, no, the stocks are overvalued. No. That's exactly right. And I have been that middle guy way too many times to count. And I'm trying to be the guy with the wojak, with the hood being like, just buy them, you know?
And it's so hard.
You said to me, it's like the best way to trade is just assume what would piss you off the most will happen. Yes, that's exactly right. Whatever move... I've told Emil this too in our audience. It's like, especially on the macro side, on just like the S&P,
whatever move will piss you off, will piss me off the most, tends to be the one that... I'm essentially calling it what other people refer to as the pain trade, meaning whatever is the most painful move for the most market participants tends to be the one that occurs and follows through. And when you've got... I don't know why I'm gesturing because nobody can see me. That's fine. Ed can see you.
When you've got a sharp decline like we had a few weeks back, I believe now like six weeks ago, when you've got a sharp decline like that and then a nice tradable bottom occurs on a lot of volume, meaning it's like a lot of people are coming in and there's some capitulation going, once that bottom is in, everybody who missed shorting is now going, oh, now's my time to get short.
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Chapter 3: How is finance Twitter influencing market behavior?
there's a, and I'm obviously not the only person to talk about this. It's widely known that there's just this reflexive automatic buying week after week with people's automatic 401k purchases. Um,
People like me who just, when it goes down, buy the dip because I'm like, great, I love a little discount.
Why not? In the hopes that it doesn't go down further. This is why I never touch the markets. I almost feel like the way the markets function now is about as anti-consumer an investor as it could get. Because it's not like regular people have access... to any of the signals they'd need to actually, well, I guess now everyone's doing insider trading, it doesn't really matter.
But it feels like following one's nose or actually understanding fundamentals doesn't really matter. You've got enough deals that are just completely fake with AMD and Broadcom and all that. I'm very much focusing on tech stocks. The market isn't reacting to reality if it ever did. And I'm trying to work out whether this is a remarkable era or just one of many pants shittings for the market.
Yeah. I mean, dude, what we're all describing basically is another old, uh, phrase that bull markets climb a wall of worry. And it's like the, the worry is, can this be sustained? Is this real? Um, and yeah, Surely, throughout the way up, there are companies that are going to have poor earnings or suspend dividends or have their CapEx suddenly skyrocket or whatever.
And those companies definitely will get hit, but... The way that things are going currently with the way things are trending, everybody just kind of shifts their focus on its rotation from sector to sector. And right now, the big thing is AI bottlenecks. And there's this person who blew up recently on Twitter. They're an anonymous account. They're called Serenity something. But this guy...
Do you know who I'm talking about? No, I'm going to look him up as we're speaking. Serenity, this guy started talking about this company. The ticker symbol is A-X-T-I. And I'm so pissed because... I saw this tweet and I saw people talking about it and it's like, oh, they have the market cornered on some fucking substrate, just some shit that I have no idea. I don't understand it.
And they're like, this company is so pivotal to the entire supply chain. And the market cap at the time was like $800 million. And my stupid ass was trying to apply logic to it. And I'm like, okay, if they're that crucial and they're only valued at $800 million, why doesn't some other bigger company just come acquire them? And boom, now you own that part of the supply chain.
So I was like, this is too good to be true. It's one of those things where it probably is just getting a pump and it'll just flounder. And it has gone 10x since then. It is now trading at like 70. This company has $23 million of quarterly revenue. Yeah, I mean, that's the thing.
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Chapter 4: What role do memory stocks play in today's market dynamics?
I also think it's tapping into a certain mindset of people right now that makes all this possible.
It was very apparent with the crypto thing where it's like, there are very few good jobs available anymore.
It's so hard to start a business without just getting absolutely hosed. And you have all these... I mean, it's a lot of men who want a way to make money and they're like, okay, well, I'm smart.
I can YOLO my life savings into the right stock. And some people do hit and then they hit and you see that projected out into the world and everyone's like, damn, that could be me.
There was a guy, I just saw this article. I forgot his name, but it's a weird fucking, some kind of weird European name. It's like Slogan Dorfenberg or something. Oh yeah, Slogan Dorfenberg. Slogan Dorfenberg. Slogan Dorfenberg. He was just a guy, just a normal guy who turned, I'm not exaggerating, $5,000 into $100 million over the course of 2020 to 2023. Wow.
And his high watermark was 100 million, but then he gave back like 60 of it and it dropped down to like, I don't know, 35, 40. And yeah, he just talks about how he was playing the trends and just, I mean, there's a... Guys like that are blessed because they don't have the experience necessary to be cautious.
So they just throw that caution to the wind and they're like, this is the thing that everybody's buying. Whereas I would go, it's already run up like 500%.
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Chapter 5: How are semiconductor stocks impacting investment trends?
He's like... Hot diggity, it's up 500%. I got to get in on that. And then it goes up another thousand percent. And I'm sitting there thumbing my own butthole, taking a whiff going, man, what have I done with my life? Well, this guy's like, trading is easy. What you're describing is walking around a casino and being like, why am I not making money? Everyone's cheering.
Do you know how much of the stock market is made up of retail investors, regular people now? I don't know, but I know it's a substantial amount. It's too much. I know that. It's substantial enough that it legitimately moves markets now. That's so bad. Yeah.
Well, it used to be a lot worse because it was all focused on... It was all fragmented and it was all focused on penny stocks and people just going like, oh... you know, the one I like to talk about the most, uh, the most famous one arguably was sponge tech and sponge tech was, it was a revolutionary new type of sponge ed that had this built into the sponge.
And it was one of the most famous ones cause it, you know, it went from like 10 cents to $10 or something like that. Um, but nowadays retail is, and I put this in quotes, smarter, um, Only in the sense that it's a lot more coordinated and organized and people can share information a lot easier and cleaner.
Which almost has like a negative impact though.
Yeah, like being able to share information doesn't make the information as useful or good. Right. And if you're the last one holding the bag, you're not going to have a good time and you're going to end up like one of these AMC guys.
Right. And they end up starting subreddits and they all make themselves insane. And even when it's just like completely dead, you have three guys in there just posting a news article being like, could be good for us. I'm going to be honest.
I do this with, are you familiar with Nebius? Yeah. Yeah. Nebius, they're an AI neo-cloud compute thing. Reading Nebius, the stockholders there, and just reading like, what would it take Nebius to get to $2,000 a share? It's like 180 right now. It's like, congratulations to everyone. It isn't about PT or AI bubble anymore. It's more than that.
And it's just a screenshot of an all caps tweet about Larry Fink saying, I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute. Oh, yeah, I saw that.
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Chapter 6: What are the implications of retail trading on market volatility?
I think today it hit $1,500 a share, this Sandisk. And Micron is just, they're just going parabolic. And somewhere there's some kid in Korea just slurping on bibimbap and I'm going... Is that what it is, Bulgogi? And he's going like, hot damn, I can take my girlfriend out. Or boyfriend, you know. We live in the 21st century. We're progressive.
And I'm over here just going, god damn, that Korean guy out there on the other side of this trade. Because I am short a little bit of Soxal and SMH, but... And you like bibimbap. I love bibimbap. I can't, can't we have a, wouldn't that be beautiful if the Korean boy makes his money on the long side and then I, the, uh, his American counterparty makes money on the short side.
Chapter 7: How do market narratives shape investor sentiment?
Let's just hope he gets out in time and it all works out for you.
That's exactly right.
And I hope everyone gets bibimbap.
The Korean grocery vegetable lady out there. God, I hope she brings the register.
That's who I hope is really bringing the register.
Yeah. But it's the, it's the modern day, uh, shoe shiner, you know, it's the Korean vegetable lady. It's just such a bad idea. In the past, I said I bought some S&P 500 and people got mad at me. And it was like, I did it once as a bid for a guest that I just joked about it with. I live in cash for many reasons that I won't go into. It's mostly to do with just how I grew up.
Stocks have always scared me. It's why I don't trust them.
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Chapter 8: What are the risks associated with following social media stock advice?
And it's one of the things my dad told me was like, don't bet with fear. The best thing to do is nothing if you're scared. And I actually think it's a good rule in general. It just doesn't, it feels like the internet has made everything worse. You said it is better. I don't know if I agree.
Like when I first got to America in 2008, I remember there were like investor newsletters. There were like 70 of them. Oh yeah. That was a big one too. Some crusty old man would send you his thoughts every week and you pay him $1,500 a month for some reason.
Yeah.
And I assume you did well. 2008 wasn't really a great year for stocks for some reason. And now it's just however many anonymous or pseudonymous insane people you follow and which one of them successfully cons enough people into being insane too. Yeah, and they used to have a strategy back then where they would say you had 1,000 subscribers to your newsletter.
You would send one pic to 100 people, one to another 100 people, one, and you would divvy them up. And then the people who got the losers were obviously like, well, fuck this guy. The people who got the winners were like, damn, this guy's awesome. And I'm butchering this, but basically they would...
keep focusing on their winner subscribers and build their trust and build their rapport with that group. And they just kind of repeated that multiple times until they had, you know, 5,000 people who just trust them and will blindly follow them into any. I, I was one of those people. I remember, God damn it, man. I forgot the name of it. Um, it was some stupid name. Uh, I,
I don't know, but I remember the name of the company, Cynicor, and the ticker symbol was S-Y-N-C. And I bought it in like 2010 because they had had some previous winners that went up like 2000%. And I thought, man, I slept on that last one. I slept on the one before because I didn't trust this group. But they seem to be the hot group right now. Wouldn't you know it? Mm-hmm.
When I bought the one that they suggested, the next one, that was when their hot streak came to a grinding halt. And I remember being, I bought this thing right before earnings with all of my money that I had in my trading account, which was like 18 grand or something. And the stock got cut in half immediately after earnings.
And I was like, I was at my, I've told this story on the show where I was at my job that I hated, like despised. I'd worked there for nine months and I saw, oh, basically just like nine months of my, my entire job here has just been erased. I've essentially been working for free. And I went and I sat in the bathroom and
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