Eric Schmidt
speaker
806 appearances
27 recordings
10 series
first heard Aug 2024
last heard 1 Jul
Eric Schmidt’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 20 in all, peaking in Dec 2025 with 6.
Appearances
With recursive self-improvement, as it's called, if you have a scale-free problem, and a scale-free problem, for example, is programming or math, where you can just keep doing it, you get these enormous fast gains if you buy enough hardware, do enough software, so forth and so on.
That is still underway.
The collective of that says that in the next three-ish years, they believe that we will get forms of superintelligence.
And the way they define it is basically a savant, a chemist savant, a physics savant, a mathematician savant.
I don't agree with the three years, but I do agree that it'll be maybe six or seven years.
It's not general intelligence yet.
General intelligence is when it can set its own objective function.
Right.
There's no evidence right now of the ability to set your own objective function.
The thinking, and I'm writing a paper on this, so I've been studying it, is that the technical problem is non-stationarity of mathematical proofs.
And what you're doing is you're trying to solve against the objective function, but the objective function keeps changing, which is how humans operate.
Your goal changes every day, whereas computers have trouble with that.
As a math problem, we don't have an algorithm yet for LLMs that can do that.
People are working on it.
And the test will be, can you basically, using the information available in 1902, can you derive the same thing that Einstein did with special relativity followed by general relativity?
We cannot do that today.
And most people believe that the way this will be solved is through analogy.
So the theory of great geniuses is that they understand one area extremely well and they're so brilliant, the lady or man, can then take their ideas and apply it to a completely different domain.
If we can solve that problem, then I think it's over.
Then we get to AGI and then it's a whole different world.
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